Analysts raise forecast for GDP growth to 3.8% for this year, just enough to lower IASS and IRPF

The Uruguayan economy will grow 3.8% in 2022 according to the median of the analysts consulted in the latest Survey of Economic Expectations (EEE) of the Central Bank (BCU). If the new projection materializes, a tax cut is expected if the government fulfills its last promise.

The last March 2, the president Lacalle Pou assumed the commitment before the General Assembly from “reduce the IASS and increase the deductions in the lower income tax brackets in the year 2023″ if the expansion of the GDP reaches a minimum of 3.8% this year as estimated andl Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) in February of this year.

This month the GDP of the last quarter of last year was known —which grew 4.4% in 12 months— and data from previous quarters were reestimated. With that new information, several private analysts revised their estimates for 2022 growth upwards.

The economist and partner of Vixion Aldo Lema explained through Twitter that the dynamism of the Uruguayan economy confirmed in the last quarterly data “generated a high statistical drag” of 3.6% for the current year. “That would be the growth if GDP remained stagnant all this year at its level in the fourth quarter (of 2021),” she detailed.

In light of the latest quarterly information for last year, the estimate of private agents rose by just over half a point from the previous measurement in February (3.3%).

However, GDP growth expectations “possibly they will be corrected upwards in April” again “since not all the answers (of the measurement published today) incorporate the latest data (of the final quarter of 2021)“, indicated the CPA-Ferrere economist Nicolás Cichevski on Twitter.

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