Six states will go to the polls this Sunday. Aguascalientes, Durango, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas will elect their new rulers. Although pollsters report a high rejection rate and significant problems in accessing some municipalities, MORENA is expected to win at least 4 entities.
According to these projections, the coalition that supports the president could govern between 22 and 23 entities: 20 or 21 with MORENA, 1 with the PVEM, and 1 with the PES. On the opposition side, 5 or 6 entities will be governed by the PAN, 2 by the PRI and 2 by the MC.
The governing coalition has comfortable majorities in the Legislative Branch. In the Senate, MORENA and its allies have 59% of the seats, while the PAN-PRI-PRD block has 30%. The Chamber of Deputies is made up of 55% of legislators belonging to the AMLO coalition, 40% from the PAN-PRI-PRD alliance and 5% from MC.
These numbers are not enough for MORENA and its allies to pass constitutional reforms, but they are enough for the approval of legal instruments, among which the Expenditure Budget stands out -which is the most substantive definition of public policy that a country has. -, as well as for the ratification of appointments (except those that require a qualified majority) and the approval of international treaties.
MORENA can govern 68% of the states of the Republic this year, and if we add to this its presence in the Legislature, it is very evident that the people of Mexico have given it a historic level of trust, but it also indicates the enormous expectations what about their performance.
When the same party governs the federation and more than twenty other entities, understanding and coordination between the levels of government should facilitate the implementation of the security strategy, emblematic projects and economic recovery. For example, although López Obrador has constantly visited Oaxaca, the arrival of Salomón Jara should accelerate the transfer of the Welfare Secretariat and the development of the Interoceanic Corridor that would trigger industry and investment in the region.
Our legal framework is far from perfect and a large part of the powers granted to each level of government have been designed based on circumstantial political arrangements and partisan balances in Congress. Some of the most complex problems we face necessarily require coordination between the different powers and levels of government, so having rulers emanating from the same movement could facilitate agreements and solutions in concurrent matters between the federation and the states.
In campaigns, people always ask how they can be sure that this candidate will not be one more politician of those who only throw the ball at each other. People trust and demand solutions. Just as there are benefits for the rulers emanating from MORENA, the citizens will also demand accounts in a different way, not from the ruler but from the party that has all the possibilities of providing the solutions that he promised in the campaign. People will not accept excuses. The 2024 election will demand more results from MORENA, who will require more and better technical and political staff, greater transparency and closeness to the people, and deliver better accounts in security and economic matters.