After several months of estagnation in their inflationary expectationsThus, Uruguayan businessmen revised upwards their forecasts for the rate of rise in prices in the Uruguayan economy, bad news for the main objective that the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) has on the table today.
According to the April Business Expectations Survey released this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), businessmen project an inflation of 9% for the end of this year, 1 point above the March surveyor (8%). In addition, they expect a slight moderation for the one-year horizon (8.6%), according to the median of the responses.
While, for the BCU’s policy horizon (24 months), companies maintain a projection of 8%that is 2 points above the inflationary target range that will be in force at that time (3% to 6%). On the other hand, Uruguayan businessmen expect their costs to increase 9% this year and 8.5% in the 24-month horizon.
The analysts and public and private institutions that participated in the Survey of Expectations of the Central Bank (BCU) In April they had also corrected their forecasts for 2022 upwards for the third time in a row. The median inflation expected by analysts is 8.5% for the end of the year, more than half a point above the March survey. (7.9%). While for the next 24 months it stands at 6.88%, from 6.95% forecast during the March survey.
The president of the BCU, Diego Labat, recognized that in 2022 inflation is going to be above the target range and that the uncertainty is such that it is not easy to give a number.
Inflation stabilized in Aprill after accelerating for four consecutive months. In the 12 months to April, the rate of increase in prices was 9.37%, practically the same figure for the moving year ending in March (9.38%). According to data released this Wednesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), there were a monthly variation of 0.49% during the fourth month of the year in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). That data was well below analysts’ expectations and agents that the Central Bank consults monthly in its Survey of Expectations. The median of the responses had projected a rise in prices of 0.72% for April.
