In 2024, Morena will most likely win the presidential election. But not necessarily the security of his future. He faces a paradox: resounding electoral victories strengthen the party as a national brand, but also local structures, those that are more loyal to their regional leadership than to the party.
Those who try to analyze Morena with categories of the past are wrong. Those who think of partisan models of yesteryear, such as those of the masses: strongly disciplined, with aspirations to have a large number of militants, with campaign offers aimed at perfectly defined sectors.
What is relevant today is not political representation — once one of the essential functions of any political party — but rather the capacity for mobilization based on the possibility of becoming a government. As never before, to win in the electoral battle, the attention must be on the flow of party support.
Where are Morena’s support bases located? What is the capacity of your structures to mobilize voters? Chiapas is, by far, the main source of support for the president’s party. Of the seven district congressmen with the most votes in the Morenista process held on July 30, five come from that state.
In district 7 (Tonalá), Zaynia Andrea Gil Vázquez reached 8,221 votes. He was followed by two candidates from Mexicali, Baja California. But the following four had the capacity to mobilize more than 6,000 citizens for an internal election in Chiapas: Sonia Eloina Hernández Aguilar (Tapachula, 7,352 votes), Carlos Molina Velasco (Bochil, 7,038 votes), Mariano Rosales Zuarth (Villaflores, 6,950 votes ) and Ana María Zenteno Tovilla (Bochil, 6,817 votes).
These results are consistent with what happened in the mandate revocation process that had its main day on April 10. The results show that the 16 cells where Morena had a greater mobilization capacity were located in the districts of Bochil and Villaflores, in addition to Pichucalco. All of them, except one, by the way, located in non-urban areas.
If you want to be more specific, you can trace the data in the 57,449 cells, arranged in a total of 6,651 sections. The result is that the sections that provide the most support to Morena are in Chiapas and are: Berriozabal’s 138; 627, 630, 631, 634 and 635 from Ixtapa; 1048 from Pueblo Nuevo Solistahuaca; 1828, 1831, 1843 and 1850 from Villa de Corzo, as well as 1858 from Villaflores. 100% participation: all those registered on the nominal list of the aforementioned 16 polling stations went to vote.