Avocado, tomato and egg put pressure on inflation in the first half of May

Avocado, tomato and egg put pressure on inflation in the first half of May

Avocados rose 13.38% at a fortnightly rate, tomatoes 7.92%, and prices in snack bars, inns and others rose 0.58%. There were also increases in products such as eggs (1.94%), oranges (9.01%), chicken (0.72%), chayote (24.97%) and pasteurized milk (0.74%).

On the other hand, electricity rates, as part of the summer subsidies, fell 20.36%. While other products such as lemon (-24-61%), onion (-11.42) and serrano chili (-16.38) also reduced their prices.

Has inflation reached its peak?

An analysis by Banorte found that inflation was relatively high despite favorable seasonality.

The percentage reached suggests that the peak of inflation has already been reached, the financial group pointed out.

The decline in inflation was in tune with the market. On Friday, Reuters released the expectations of specialists, who predicted on average a reduction of 0.7% compared to the previous fortnight.

Underlying continues to rise

The underlying price index, which excludes the most volatile prices and, precisely, electricity tariffs, continued with a 0.31% fortnightly increase and reached an annual rate of 7.24%. This beat expectations of 0.29%.

Core inflation is considered a better parameter to measure the trajectory of prices, by eliminating products with high volatility. Within this index, the prices of merchandise rose 0.35% and those of services 0.25%, according to information from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

For its part, the non-core price index fell 1.15% at a fortnightly rate and increased 8.60% at an annual rate. Within this component, the prices of “agricultural products grew 0.47%, at the same time as those of energy and tariffs authorized by the government fell 2.45%. This was mainly due to adjustments in electricity rates within the warm season scheme in 11 cities in the country,” the institute specified.

The central bank, which has a permanent inflation target of 3% +/- percentage point, recently raised its key rate by 50 basis points to 7%, in the latest episode of a cycle of hikes that began in June last year.

“Levels continue to be high and above Banco de México’s target.” And given that inflation is still far from its central objective “and in order to take care of anchoring inflation expectations, the monetary authority would have to continue tightening its monetary policy,” Alain Jaimes, an analyst at Signum Research firm.

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