According to the Financial Superintendence, the rates charged by credit institutions to their clients have registered in the last year hikes of up to 238 basis points (bp) and the trend will continue for several more months, in line with the monetary normalization process of the Banco de la República, which began to raise its reference indicator since last September.
Of course, according to the statistics, in some cases, such as bank overdrafts, the average rate in January (24.36%) It is lower than that of the same month of 2021, when it reached 24.46%.
In the case of the microcredit rate, this is the one that shows the greatest increase (238 bp), going from 32.02% to 34.40%a factor that, according to analysts, is explained by the higher levels of risk involved in this modality.
In the rate of consumer loans without credit cards, the increase it has been 123 bpsince it went from a rate of 15.91% to 17.14%.
In credit cards for natural persons, the average interest went from 22.73% to 23.88%that is, a 115 bp increase.
Germán Cristancho, Manager of Economic Research and Strategy at Davivienda Corredores, says that if the movement of the interest rates of the Banco de la República is analyzed, it has risen 225 basis points, and if it is compared with the level of in several Latin American countries , it is probably foreseeable that it will continue to rise until it is taken to a neutral groundalthough nobody knows for sure what it is, but if you look at the expectations they fluctuate between 6 and 6.5%.
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Cristancho opts for a rate of 6.5%, Therefore, the Issuer would finally raise it 475 bp compared to the lowest level of 1.75% between September 2020 and the same month of 2021.
That gives an order of magnitude of what credits can go up in the future.
And he said that this transmission to the market, which takes place up to 18 months, could make the rises are seen until 2023.
He warned that at this time the economy is more sensitive to the movement of rates, therefore he considered that the increase in the Issuer’s data may be less strong since the economy is leveraged on consumption.
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Mario Pardo Bayona, president of BBVA, considers that 2021 was very good in credit growth and for 2022 more than a reduced demand for loans normalization is expected.
And he warned that as rates rise, a decrease in some types of credit is expected compared to 2021, but at a general level an increase is expected.