The increase in the Selic rate (basic interest rates in the economy) to 10.75% per year was displeasing to the productive sector. In the assessment of industry entities, the return of double-digit interest rates does not correctly combat the causes of inflation and harms the economic recovery, after the worst phase of the covid-19 pandemic.
In a note, the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) called the rise in the Selic rate excessive and wrong. The CNI warns of the risk that monetary tightening will generate recession in 2022.
“This inhibits economic activity and should continue to decelerate inflation in the coming months. This intensification of the pace of monetary policy tightening increases the risk of recession in 2022, with negative effects on production, consumption and employment”, highlighted in the statement the president of the CNI, Robson de Andrade.
According to the CNI, preliminary indicators show stagnation of economic activity, such as the Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), which in November was 0.6% below the June index.
fiesp
For the Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo (Fiesp), the rise in the Selic rate does not represent the best instrument to combat inflation. This is because, in the entity’s assessment, prices are rising due to cost pressure, such as energy and food, not due to excess demand.
“The new level of the Selic is very uncomfortable, since the inflation that it aims to combat does not present a profile suitable for an exclusive treatment via interest rates”, criticized Fiesp. “Income expansion and the generation of quality jobs are characteristics of the manufacturing industry, with generalized positive impacts, from agribusiness to services. Therefore, Fiesp says: it is necessary to think beyond Copom”, added the federation.
Firjan
The increase in the Selic rate from 9.25% to 10.75% per year could compromise the recovery of economic activity in 2022, says the Federation of Industries of Rio de Janeiro (Firjan). According to Firjan, the increase in the basic interest rate by 1.5 percentage points was already expected, but could compromise the consistent recovery of economic activity in 2022.
Firjan also says that the uncertainties regarding the long-term fiscal sustainability continue to contribute to a still very high perception of risk in the country, which reduces the confidence of entrepreneurs and investors.
“Thus, it is imperative to rescue fiscal credibility with the approval of the necessary reforms, which are capable of signaling good conduct on the path to sustainability of public accounts. Only in this way will we be able to rescue the already very shaken confidence of businessmen and promote solid growth in economic activity”, adds the note from Firjan.
