“Mexican exports will continue to grow significantly, regardless of the nearshoring. We are estimating this at 35,000 million dollars due to an inertial issue,” said Alejandro Padilla, chief economist of the Financial Group.
The second component, Padilla said, will be structural. “We are estimating that in five years, the additional effect that nearshoring could bring to Mexican exports would be 168,000 million dollars,” he explained.
In total, adding the inertial and structural effects, the effect for the country would be around 68.8 billion dollars per year.
Last year the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) estimated that the economic benefit for the country by nearshoring It would be of the order of 35,000 million dollars.
Foreign direct investment
The attractiveness of Mexico for the arrival of foreign capital is not only explained by its proximity to the United States, but also by having a modernized trade agreement for North America (T-MEC), Banorte highlighted.
Regarding foreign direct investment (FDI), the seed for Mexico to continue growing in the export sector, there are two stages:
In the first place, Padilla explained, it has to do with the construction and assembly of industrial buildings and factories and, secondly, the export of goods to the United States.
This second phase will take place in a period of between three and five years, said the Banorte manager.
The impact of FDI takes time to be reflected depending on its origin, that is, for reinvestment there is talk of a period of between six months and a year -for companies that are already in Mexico and want to increase their capacity-. While for new investments the time for results to be seen ranges from one to three years; sometimes up to five years.
