For Hernán Chaparro the position of the 16 congressmen from Peru Libre who voted against confidence in the cabinet in the case of a censorship or vacancy; however, he considered that Castillo has already separated from Cerrón and in the regional elections, PL will fare badly and the chapter related to its prominence as a result of chance will be closed.
What does the weak vote in favor of confidence leave to the cabinet?
There is a positive part because little by little, the political situation of the Executive is clarifying. The underlying theme is to what extent the 16 congressmen from Peru Libre who voted against the trust will be in favor or not on issues such as interpellation and censorship of ministers and eventually a vacancy. That is not entirely clear, but from Cerrón’s behavior, it gives the impression that with his extreme gaze, everything that strays from his guiding thought becomes an enemy.
Would that be a scenario, perhaps the worst?
The good news is that, at least, Castillo knows what lies ahead and has the opportunity to lean on the premier and the ministers who are responding to him such as Economy, Health and Justice, we will see what happens with Guillén and someone else out there.
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Will Mirtha Vásquez have a leading role?
You will have to speak on three fronts: the intern in the Executive, the Cerronista wing and the vacant right wing faction. In the last measurement of the IEP, the approval of the premier is above Castillo and the very short-term approach with AP and APP can help you.
Castillo had three questionable flanks: terrorism with ministers who are no longer there, a new Constitution that he does not promote, and the link with Cerrón, which apparently has been broken.
As for the association with terrorism, the radical sectors will continue to think that everything is a pantomime and that deep down they want to impose it. They do not realize that it is a government more than weak, that it cannot impose anything, but I think that will continue. Regarding the Constituent Assembly, It is something that Castillo is going to maintain as something more linked to what Peru Libre and the bench linked to the teaching profession want to raise, but it will be a more declarative issue, I think that will not happen. On the third point, Castillo can no longer be accused of being Cerrón’s puppet, but they will say that he is a weak president.
According to Chaparro, because of Cerrón’s behavior, “everything that strays from his guiding thought becomes an enemy.” Photo: broadcast
Can keeping questioned ministers take its toll?
It is difficult to understand how it supports the Ministers of Education and Transportation, with questioned behaviors and away from issues with a certain level of national consensus such as educational reform and public transport. They are sensitive issues for citizens and that can take its toll. To this must be added the social conflicts that exist in the interior of the country and the mobilizations may still be present.
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Does the Castle itself shoot itself to the feet?
It happens that a conjunctural issue arises that ends up gaining prominence and the one who is giving rise to these things is President Castillo. He asks to be allowed to work, but he is the one who ends up generating the conflict. There is no message from the president that has hooks from a statesman vision.
Is leadership the great absentee at this juncture?
Although Castillo does not consolidate a leadership, the same thing happens in Congress, where there are moderate options such as those of APP and AP, which except voting to support Castillo do not have clear proposals in favor of the country. The most radical right-wing groups such as Fuerza Popular, Renovación Popular and Avanza País, they continue with the discourse of promoting vacancies, but they do not come out of that either.
They criticize the government for being ineffective, but in Congress they demonstrate the same?
That’s how it is. Where is the debate in Parliament on health sector reforms and improvements in education? The background themes are still in the air and there is no room for debate and making important decisions.
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Do vacancy requests have any support?
I don’t think they have an immediate outcome. In the face of the regions, it seems like they are usurping a president who represents those sectors and that can take their toll on the electoral issue. In the eyes of the citizens in the regions, the vacancy is a request from the Lima parties, but if there is a risk for the votes that could add Free Peru, although I don’t think even Cerrón would make such a big mistake.
An issue on the agenda and the next one is the elections.
I get the impression that there will be a very fragmented vote. At the regional level, I believe that none of the parties that are in Congress will be favored. It is very difficult for Lima parties like Renovación Popular, Avanza País to have a leading role and I don’t think that in the interior of the country Fuerza Popular can achieve something important. It is difficult for the vacancy issue to advance further until that date.
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Is one of the big losers Vladimir Cerrón?
I think they all lost. Neither party is managing to capitalize on support. The feeling of distrust towards the parties of the left, right, center accumulates again and unfortunately that ends up leading to bets for new characters. What Cerrón has lost is the possibility of a factual presence.
Was the leader of Peru Libre left out of government?
Cerrón’s presence in the cabinet is minimal or non-existent and in Congress he has a very limited group. In the regional elections, I think Peru Libre is going to do very badly. There it will be closing the chapter of a leading role that has been motivated by chance and by Castillo. PL as a political group has no significance.
