Havana Cuba. – On November 22, 2021, the General Directorate of Migration and Immigration of Nicaragua established the free visa for Cubans alluding to the alleged interest in promoting “commercial exchange, tourism and humanitarian family relations.” However, even the dumbest understood what such a move was really about, and so on the migratory map of the Island the routes changed, becoming much shorter and, therefore, busier.
Thus also began the rise of this new wave of migrants to the United States – the largest since the 1980s – and despite the fact that it became shockingly clear that no one traveled from Cuba to the Central American country as a tourist, there was no management diplomacy by the regime to stop the exodus. On the contrary, agreements were negotiated with airlines mainly from allied governments, like Venezuelato incorporate the Havana-Managua route in order to increase the number of travelers whose real destination would be the north bank of the Rio Grande, in a political pressure move in which the communists are great experts.
The positive results in favor of the Cuban Government are about to be harvested. If President Biden keeps his word, soon some measures taken by its predecessor will be removed that they were leaving without oxygen a system that will not depend one hundred percent on the remittances that come from its emigrants ―at least that is what they say publicly―, but on the relationships of financial and emotional dependency (the closest thing to blackmail) that is established between those who leave and those who stay.
In a way, the solution “found” by the Cuban regime was to activate the only escape valve it has when it is lost, so helped for more than half a century that we could imagine mass exoduses as the result of tightening a kind of red button under the desk of the dictator on duty.
Unlike other times when “diplomatic blackmail” barely consisted of standing idly by while the desperate threw themselves into the sea by the thousands, on this occasion when passivity could be assumed by the United States as an attack, they did not have There is no other remedy than to disguise the stampede under the guise of a free visa agreement, having as a “shovel” an “unconditional” like Daniel Ortega, who is now waiting for Havana to tell him “enough” to close his borders. to lime and song. And that could happen soon.
Because in a certain way the purposes have been achieved not only because Biden has negotiated with the remittances, in exchange for the regime putting the migratory machine in reverse, but because Andrés Manuel López Obrador was already here talking face to face about that sea of Cubans that is stuck on the south bank of the Rio Grande and that, it seems, could begin to diminish not only because Nicaragua soon reestablishes the visa system – we Cubans will always find another way to continue heading north – but because the regime must immediately honor an agreement where Mexico, in return, undertakes to hire half a thousand doctors. A difficult bargain to refuse now that the shoe has blistered them again.
Nor is it the purpose of the Cuban Government -and it does not suit it at all- that, once remittances are reestablished (and in a symbolic way, the doors of OFAC have been opened to other investments even greater than John Kavulich’s), the migratory stampede continues at current levels.
First, because the regime needs to cut off the great flight of foreign currency, professional workers and labor in general that undoubtedly causes an exodus of such magnitude; and second, because, by virtue of the foregoing, he will not risk that a supply of doctors exported as merchandise be transformed, the moment he sets foot on Aztec soil, into another embarrassing mass flight.
But while, for whatever reason, a demon is unleashed as a solution, not even someone who knows the spell to summon it will be able to control it easily. And the mass exodus as a recurring abracadabra for problems is not only one of the most terrifying, counterproductive and indomitable devils, but also instills fear and permanent trauma in the peoples who suffer from it.
Even so, the regime has begun to activate all the closing mechanisms as it has promised to try, in exchange for the breaths of fresh air it needed, and as the days go by we will see the results of these “agreements”, although little by little, not abruptly, and not only because of how difficult it is to appease the unleashed beast, but also because it is about sending positive signals, like probing, until verifying that both parties keep their promises, while not making it too obvious something as cruel as the fact that the exodus had very little, almost nothing, spontaneous or inevitable, but rather it was just the classic pressure strategy, the old and faded Ace up the sleeve.
OPINION ARTICLE
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