Financial market reduces inflation estimate to 6.8% this year

The financial market forecast for 2022 inflation fell for the eighth week in a row. According to the Focus Bulletin, released today (22) by the Central Bank, the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), considered the country’s official inflation, fell from 7.02% to 6.82% in one week. Four weeks ago, market expectations were for an IPCA at 7.3% this year.Financial market reduces inflation estimate to 6.8% this yearFinancial market reduces inflation estimate to 6.8% this year

Boletim Focus is a weekly publication that brings together the projection of around 100 financial market institutions for the country’s main economic indicators.

Inflation expectations for 2023 also dropped: from 5.38% projected a week ago to 5.33% this Monday. For 2024 and 2025, inflation projections remain at 3.41% and 3%, respectively.

Selic and dollar

Projections for the basic interest rate, the Selic, also remain stable for both 2022 (13.75% per year) and for the following years: 11% per year, in 2023; 8% per year in 2024; and 7.5% per year in 2025.

The quotation of the real in comparison with the dollar also shows stability in the projections for this and the coming years. The expectation of the financial market is that the price of the US currency will reach R$ 5.20 both at the end of 2022 and 2023; and that 2024 and 2025 will close with the dollar costing R$5.10 and R$5.17, respectively.


The expectation for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the sum of all goods and services produced in the country, is at 2.02% for 2022. A week ago, the financial market forecast was that the year would end with a GDP in two%; and four weeks ago it was 1.93%.

For 2023, GDP is expected to rise by 0.39%. A week ago, the forecast was that the year would close with growth of 0.41%; and four weeks ago, the expectation of expansion of 0.49%.

For 2024 and 2025, financial market projections for GDP growth are stable, at 1.8% and 2%, respectively.

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