The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) grew 0.7 points in December and closed the year with a score of 51.3, remaining within the moderately optimistic zone (above 50 points). This is the third consecutive month within this zone, a level that the ICC it had not reached again since the appearance of the coronavirus in the country (March 2020).
What’s more, the ICC for December 2021 was 4.1 points higher than the score obtained in December 2020. “Although the ICC closed the year 2020 with 47.3 points, being within the zone of moderate pessimism (between 40 and 50 points), in the following months, the ICC oscillated close to the zone of neutrality (50 points) until the month of October 2021 where it enters the zone of moderate optimism (more than 50 points) in which it remains until the end of the year and in which it has not been since January 2020”, explained the report prepared by the Chair of Economic Confidence of the UCU and Consulting Teams.
UCU and Teams
Evolution of the Consumer Confidence Index
Evolution of the annual ICC by component
The Country Economic Situation it is the only subindex to close two consecutive years of improvement (it increased 2.1 points in 2020 and 4.0 points in 2021). “A possible reason for this behavior is that both components that make up the subindex (economic situation of the country in one year and three years) measure the expectations of those surveyed in the future, and may impact the optimistic perception of the future of those surveyed,” the report explained.
As opposed, the Personal Economic Situation decreased for the second consecutive year (-1.7 points in 2020 and -4.4 in 2021). According to the analysis of the UCU and Equipment, this could indicate that consumers have “greater confidence in the country’s situation in general than in their own. However, it is necessary to take into consideration that within its components (current personal economic situation and one year), unlike the previous subindex, one of them measures the current situation of the respondent”.
“This component was the most affected, and could be influenced by the economic uncertainty experienced in these two years of constant improvement and deterioration of the situation of the pandemic caused by covid-19“, Explain. Regarding the economic situation one year from now, the surveyed population showed a more positive outlook than with the current situation.
UCU and Teams
Evolution of the Consumer Confidence Index by component
By last, The Willingness to purchase durable goods is the subindex that had the greatest recovery in 2021, increasing 14.5 points between December 2020 and December 2021, offsetting the drop it had experienced in 2020 and reaching scores that had not been obtained since March 2018.
This behavior could be associated with thepersistence of the pandemic, the greater permanence in homes and limitation in various activities such as, for example, trips abroadresulting in an increase in the proportion of consumer income allocated to the purchase of durable goods that provide a better quality of life, such as: appliances, home improvement, among others”.
Uruguay closed the year as the most reliable in the region
When analyzing the variation of the index, it is observed that all the countries had uneven performances. Uruguay is the only one that is in the zone of moderate optimism (between 50 and 60 points) while Argentina, Brazil and Chile are positioned in the level of reasonable pessimism (less than 40 points).
Argentina performance deteriorates again (-1.9 points in December) for the third consecutive month, remaining in the zone of understandable pessimism (less than 40 points).
Brazilfor second consecutive month its performance worsens (-0.4 points in December), obtaining the last place in the series.
UCU and Teams
CCI by country
chiliwas the country that showed more improvement (4.6 points in December), although it remains Within the area of reasonable pessimism (less than 40 points), it is no longer the country with the least confidence in the region.
Uruguayby last, With an increase of 0.7 points, it consolidates as the country with the highest score in the region and is the only one within the optimistic zone of the graph (more than 50 points).
