The 2021/2022 grain harvest should reach 265.7 million tons, an increase of 10 million tons compared to the previous cycle, informed today (10) the National Supply Company (Conab). The estimate, which is part of the sixth survey of the harvest, also points to a 4.3% increase in the area destined for plantation, estimated at 72.7 million hectares. According to Conab, the increase in planted area is due to the incorporation of 3 million hectares, mostly for soybean and corn plantations.
Despite the expectation of an increase in the harvest, when compared to the result obtained in the 2020/21 period, there is a slight loss in production of 0.9% over the volume released in February, when 268.2 million tons were expected.
“The drop is a reflection of the severe drought observed, especially in the states of the southern region of the country and in the center-south of Mato Grosso do Sul. The adverse weather significantly impacted the productivity of soybean and corn 1st harvest, mainly” , said Conab.
Conab also said that attention is focused on the harvest of the soybean crop, which already exceeds 50%. In total, 40.7 million hectares were planted, an increase of 3.8% in the planted area compared to the 2020/2021 harvest. Production is expected to reach 122.76 million tons.
According to Conab, the advance of the soybean harvest dictates the pace of second crop corn planting. Currently, the company estimates that the area destined for corn is already 74.8% sown. The highlight goes to the state of Mato Grosso with 94% planted. The forecast is for planting in an area of approximately 16 million hectares, which represents an increase of 6.7% over the previous harvest.
Conab’s expectation is that the total production of the cereal will grow 29%, reaching 112.3 million tons. The increase is driven by the better performance, mainly of the second harvest of the grain, which tends to increase from 60.7 million tons in the 2020/21 period to 86.2 million tons in the current season.
Conab also said that there is also an expectation of growth for the cotton crop. The survey released this Thursday points to an increase of 19.7% in fiber production, reaching approximately 6.9 million tons, of which 2.82 million tons are just plume.
The bean crop, on the other hand, was partially damaged and will show losses, due to “climate adversity”, especially in the first cycle of the crop. Conab informed that the second crop of the legume is being implemented or in full development, with the prospect of achieving a good result. This would guarantee the supply of the consumer market, balancing the grain supply.
In the case of rice, Conab foresees a reduction in both cultivated area and productivity. With this, the estimated production is 10.3 million, a decrease of 12.1% compared to the 2020/21 harvest.
Conab also presented the percentage of fertilizers’ share in costs for soybean, corn and wheat. According to the study, currently the share is within a margin between 30% and 40% in variable costs, depending on the producing region and the product analyzed.
“In the case of wheat, fertilizers represent about 33% of variable costs in Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul, while in the municipality of Cascavel, in Paraná, the percentage reaches 38%. For 2nd harvest corn, the weight of these inputs reaches 33% in Sorriso (MT). In the case of soybean cultivation in the municipality of Mato Grosso, the percentage of participation of fertilizers reaches an index of 37%”, said the company.
The concern is that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will jeopardize the supply of the input, increasing the cost of production and, consequently, consumer prices.
The data include the prices practiced until February this year. According to the Foreign Trade Secretariat, around 22% of fertilizers imported in the last year originated in Russia, followed by China, with 15%, and Canada with 10%.