Trade confidence has highest level since March 2020, says CNC

CNC predicts a 5.3% increase in sales for Father’s Day

Sales volume for Father’s Day 2022, to be celebrated next Sunday (14), is expected to reach R$ 7.28 billion, which will represent an increase of 5.3% compared to the same date last year. At that time, retail was still suffering from the process of returning consumers to circulation. The estimate was released today (9) by the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC).CNC predicts a 5.3% increase in sales for Father's Day

The president of CNC, José Roberto Tadros, said that in terms of financial transactions, Father’s Day is the fourth most important commemorative date for the Brazilian retail trade. “Even with high inflation, the outlook is positive for the sector due to the injection of extraordinary resources, such as withdrawals from FGTS accounts, anticipation of the thirteenth salary of INSS retirees and pensioners and expansion of Auxílio Brasil, both in the amount benefit as well as the number of beneficiaries”, he observed.

In CNC’s understanding, these resources support the advance in sales throughout this year. The entity recalled that the Monthly Trade Survey (PMC) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), last May, showed that real retail sales had already reached 3.9% above the volume registered on the eve of the pandemic in February 2020 and 3.0% higher than in August last year.

For the CNC economist responsible for the research, Fábio Bentes, the end of the pandemic may explain the expected increase in sales for Father’s Day. “Practically all the flow of consumers lost during the most acute phases of the health crisis has been restored”, he explained.

According to CNC, Google indicators pointed out that at the end of July this year, the circulation of consumers in establishments aimed at consumption was 1.7% higher than the level noticed on the eve of the beginning of the pandemic. According to CNC, the scenario is significantly different from those seen in similar periods of 2021, when there was a drop of 12.4% and 2020, which had a decrease of 35.9%.

temporary hires

It’s not just sales that should increase. CNC estimated that the hiring of temporary workers should also evolve. The expectation is to create 18,500 temporary jobs to meet the seasonal demand for sales. If the number is confirmed, it will be the largest contingent since 2014, when it reached 20,300. Among the hyper and supermarket establishments with 8.2 thousand and clothing with 7.8 thousand, they are the ones that bet the most on hiring. The admission salary is between R$ 1,638 in the retail average. The value means an increase of 1.2% in nominal terms compared to the same period last year.

gifts

Inflation will impact prices and the basket of goods and services related to the date should rise 8.6% compared to last year. The percentage is the biggest variation of this specific group of goods or services since 2016, when it registered the same high level. Only personal computers are cheaper than in 2021 (2.4% less) among the 13 items analyzed. The most expressive highs are in men’s clothing, which rose 21.9%, sneakers, with an increase of 18.2%, and alcoholic beverages, with an increase of 17%.

According to CNC, despite the apparel, footwear and accessories segment still not having recovered the pace of before the pandemic, in May of this year, the sales volume was still 7.7% lower than in February 2020, 43.7% of the total sales for Father’s Day will be related to the income of these stores with sales of R$ 3.18 billion. Following are the branches of household appliances and electronics (R$ 1.24 billion) and perfumery and cosmetics products (R$ 1.07 billion).

Regions

The Southeast will account for more than half of sales. São Paulo with R$ 2.33 billion, Minas Gerais with R$ 662.7 million and Rio de Janeiro with R$ 612.5 million, together tend to reach 51.3% of the financial movement with the date this year. “The main units of the Federation should show real advances compared to last year, with emphasis on the rates expected in Ceará (+17.2%), Espírito Santo (+12.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (+11, 0%)”, added the CNC.

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