Page Seven / La Paz
Net international reserves (RIN) as of December 10, 2021 reached 4,791 million dollars and increased by 68 million compared to December 3 and are at adequate levels, assured the Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB).
The issuing institute informed Página Siete that the NIR indicators are above the international benchmark thresholds, representing 12% of GDP and covering six months of imports of goods and services (when the benchmark threshold is three months).
“It is necessary to clarify that the coverage of the NIRs must consider the total concept of its components such as: currencies, SDR holdings, gold and other assets. For this reason, carrying out an analysis of the NIRs referring only to currencies, underestimates the capacity of the national economy and does not conform to international standards, ”stated the BCB.
In addition, it stands out that during the 2021 management a significant stabilization trend of the NIRs is observed, compared to the 2020 management.
According to the issuing entity, this positive trend is based on the performance of variables that affect the NIRs, such as the trade balance, family remittances and foreign direct investment, among others.
“So far in 2021, there has been a record of net transfers from abroad through the BCB, in line with the trade surplus, which is the product of the economic reactivation and the improvement in international prices,” he stressed.
For the BCB, the policies implemented by the Government generate stability for the NIRs.
The analyst Rolando Morales said that in addition to the RIN and the currencies that are in banks and exchange houses, there are also dollars in the hands of people and companies. “Apparently this is very important because there is no pressure in the foreign exchange market. Unlike in other times, when the NIRs went down, people rushed to buy dollars, but now this does not happen. There is a supply that exceeds the demand ”, he stressed.
He pointed out that the current levels of the RIN are used for several months of importation, but clarified that attention must be paid to the evolution and the authorities have time to analyze some measures.
The economist Germán Molina said that there must be reserves that allow covering a minimum of four months of imports, but the close to 5,000 million dollars that we have are sufficient, because there is also a trade surplus and that feeds the stock.
In addition, other sources that strengthen NIRs are recent remittances and credits, such as those from the CAF, among others. “We would be closing 2021 with a positive flow of currencies and there would be no problems with the level of the RINs.” Molina remarked.
However, he warned that in 2022 external conditions will be adverse due to the pandemic and trade may decline, China paralyzing. “The US is raising interest rates and we would enter an economy with stagnation and inflation,” he warned.
The RINs are the backing of the national currency, that is why since 2011 there is a fixed exchange rate regime. They also guarantee the payment of foreign debt and imports.