Much of the main economies of America experienced moderate growth in their gross domestic product (GDP) during the first quarter of this year, compared to the spectacular rebound that was noted throughout 2021, something that tends to mark a slow 2022.
The new projections published in April by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) for the current year foresee that the region will have an average growth of 1.8%, a clear reduction with compared to 6.9% registered last year.
In the ECLAC extra area, the United States did not escape this phenomenon and Canada did, but just barely.
A disparate America
The United States feels the steps of the recession very closely, since a fall in the first quarter of 1.5% with respect to the same period of the previous year and 0.4% with respect to the last quarter of 2021.
However, experts like Connel Fullenkampfrom Duke University, assure Efe that the most likely scenario would be that of a slowdown in the economy, but not that of a recession, given that unemployment remains very low and American consumption is robust.
Along the same lines, it has been stated brian deesedirector of the National Economic Council of the White House, who assures that what has been presented is a “transition” process between what has been “the strongest recovery in modern US history” and a “more stable” period, although with lower figures.
The most worrying aspect is inflation of 8.5%the highest in four decades.
Canada, for its part, grew by 0.8% in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter, which represents 3.1% in year-on-year terms.
According to Statistics Canada, the Real GDP increased 0.7% in Marchafter a growth of 0.9% the previous month.
The Bank of Canada has forecast that the national economy will grow by 6% year-on-year in the second quarter of the year.
Growth in the first three months of 2022 marks the third consecutive quarter of expansion for the Canadian economy.
In Mexico there was also a relatively positive sign, since GDP grew by 1% quarterly between January and March 2022 compared to the same previous period, according to data released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
But not all voices sing victory. Gabriela Sillerdirector of economic analysis at the Banco Base firm, told Efe that “comparing the figures for the first quarter of 2022 with the GDP of 2019, prior to the pandemic, there is still a 2.5% lag.”
For the rest of the year, the Ministry of Finance estimates that the country’s GDP will grow by 3.4%, in contrast to the expectations of the private sector, which forecast just 1.73%.
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The Peruvian economy grew by 3.84% in the first quarter of this year, compared to the first three months of 2021, after closing March with an increase of 3.79%.
These good data allow the Government to estimate that the Andean country will close 2022 with a total growth of 3.6%, one of the highest in the region.
Despite this generous number, the head of the Institute of Economy and Business Development (Iedeb) of the Lima Chamber of Commerce, Oscar Chavezwarned Efe that this growth is based on “the dissaving of the private sector” and is not the result of work, which he considers “the wrong path.”
“It is going to mean that in the future, especially for next year, the possibilities of growth are much lower,” Chavez added.