“Very little is seen from Congress an intention to push towards a way out of this political morass that we are experiencing, what prevails there is a survival instinct of the majority of congressmen. They already know that an exit that goes through a resignation or a vacancy implies in any case an early general election, so they do not want to lose the only political power they are going to have in these years, which is to be in Congress . (…) Particular interests will prevail and alliances will be forged around some conservative agendas. We have already seen it before with Fujimorism and Peru Libre,” said Sulmont, who highlights as an example the presentation of a minister of Foreign Relations closer to the opposition than to the Government.
Anthony Medina specifies that this fact corresponds more than anything to a usual type of speech in politics that serves to measure the negotiating capacity between both forces.
“When politicians make statements, they always play with both cannons; They said that about the double-barreled shotgun it applied to the APRA, but in reality it applies to everyone. With one hand you fight and with the other you negotiate. Lady Camones, on the one hand, says that she will support to a consensus agenda Y then he says that he is going to support a vacancy. Naturally, they are pressing at the level of statements how far the others can go, what their capabilities are; Y if you have a belligerent Congress, you are not going to turn the other cheek” explained the political scientist.
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Medina agrees with Sulmont that “Not even Castillo wants to close Congress, and neither does Congress want to vacate Castillo.” Meanwhile, Peru remains in a situation of constant uncertainty that cannot change until, either on one side of the rope or the other, an attempt is made to make a movement that promotes a political channel with a view to a prosperous future in the country.
How to get out of this neutral point?
For Sulmont, there are very few possibilities to change the situation, which have to do with maintaining the hope that the change will come from the president himself. “Castillo would have to realize that his government is unviable, he has just finished his first year, it is four more years of the same, for a country that is not getting anywhere. This can be tricky because, if there is any crisis or social conflict of the Government, he will not have the strength to face that, ”he explained for this medium.
Medina adds that, “As long as they continue to tighten the rope, they will end up breaking it, on one side or the other. We are entering a game of declarations, which I think is quite dangerous in a second year of government. That is, how long can this balance be maintained? We do not know”.
Neither one power nor the other is willing to give in. Photo: composition The Republic
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The third option is defined by Sulmont as a long and complicated path, but which, after all, emerges as a path in this scenario. It refers to the collection of signatures for the execution of a referendum for an early election.
“In any case, this is a solution that will take at least a year, since it consists of collecting signatures, obtaining 66 votes in Congress for it, and voting on the referendum,” indicates, to then add one last possible output.
“The other thing is that some moment of public opinion arrives in the face of a scandal that generates a mobilization of the citizenry that forces any of these exits (or vacancy or dissolution), that has happened in the past. However, now the strong discontent of the citizens is not reflected in the mobilizations that motivate a change of actors in the Government or in terms of Parliament” concludes the specialist.
