The estimates are part of the forecasts that the Ministry of Finance will send to Congress on Thursday along with the budget project for next year. The legislators can make modifications during the discussion of the package that contains the forecasts of income and expenses.
“It is a conservative price,” said a source who requested anonymity about the price of crude for 2023. The document, meanwhile, says that the average for 2022 is 93.6 dollars per barrel. The government tends to underestimate this variable, arguing that it is conservative and allows a better measurement of risk in the face of market volatility.
The “production platform” for 2023 of 1.872 million bpd is slightly higher than this year’s estimate of 1.835 million bpd.
Mexico’s state oil company Pemex, the country’s main hydrocarbons producer, produces around 1.7 million bpd of crude. The average price of the export basket was 97.67 dollars in the first seven months of the year.
Meanwhile, crude oil exports forecast for next year are 784,000 bpd compared to an average of 950,000 bpd for the current year, after the government abandoned its plan to drastically reduce them to take advantage of high oil prices after the invasion. from Russia to Ukraine.
The document refers, on the other hand, to a forecast of economic growth of 3% and a specific inflation of 3.2% for 2023, compared to an expansion of 2.4% for this year and a specific inflation of 7.7%.
It was not possible to have a comment from the Treasury on the figures.
Banco de México recently maintained its expectation for growth this year at 2.2% but sharply lowered its estimate for 2023 to 1.6% from 2.4% previously. It also raised its estimate for inflation this year to 8.1% from 6.4% previously.