The rising price of several imported items, especially fertilizers and oil, caused the trade surplus to shrink in July. Last month, the country exported US$ 5.444 billion more than it imported, down 22.7% compared to the same month in 2012.
In the first seven months of the year, the trade balance has accumulated a surplus of US$ 39.751 billion. This represents 10.4% less than that recorded from January to July last year. Despite the decline, the balance is the second best in history for the period, losing only to the first seven months of 2021, when the surplus had closed at US$ 44.38 billion.
Last month, Brazil sold US$ 29.955 billion abroad and bought US$ 24.511 billion. Both imports and exports hit a record in July, since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989. Exports rose 20% in relation to July last year, according to the criterion of the daily average. Imports, however, increased at a faster pace: 31.6% in the same comparison.
The record of imports and exports, however, is due to the increase in international prices of goods. Last month, the volume of exported goods rose by an average of only 4.7% compared to July last year, while prices rose 12.2%, favored by the appreciation of commodities (primary goods with international quotation).
In imports, the quantity purchased rose 8.7%, but average prices rose 41.6%. The rise in prices was mainly driven by manures, fertilizers, oil, coal and wheat, items that became more expensive after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
sectors
In the agricultural sector, the increase in international prices weighed more on exports. The volume of goods shipped dropped 2.6% in July compared to the same month in 2021, while the average price rose 38%. In the manufacturing industry, quantity rose 8.3%, with the average price increasing 18.2%.
In the extractive industry, which includes the export of minerals and oil, the amount exported rose 4.8%, while average prices dropped 13.9% in relation to July last year. Although the average price of crude oil rose by 41.2% in this comparison, the price of iron ore fell by 43.5%, driven by lockdowns in China, which reduce international demand.
The most prominent products in agricultural exports were unground corn (+201.7%), unroasted coffee (+84.4%) and soybeans (+23.8%). This growth is mainly due to prices. The negative highlight was cotton, whose exports dropped 50.6% from July last year to July this year due to the anticipation of shipments at the beginning of the year.
In the extractive industry, the biggest increases were registered in exports of crude mineral oils (+92.8%), crude oil (+77.5%) and nickel ore (+53.2%). In the manufacturing industry, the biggest growth occurred in fuels (+103.1%), sugars and molasses (+44.6%) and chilled or frozen beef (+27.4%).
Regarding imports, the biggest growth was registered in the following products: unmilled barley (+83.5%), whole fish (+34.1%) and unmilled wheat and rye (+23.2%), in agriculture ; non-agglomerated coal (+211.1%), natural gas (+106.5%) and crude oil (+98.5%), in the extractive industry; and fuels (+82.7%) and processed chemical fertilizers or fertilizers (+175.3%), fuels (+93.4%) and cathode valves (+58.5%), in the manufacturing industry.
I estimated
Last month, the government had reduced to US$ 81.5 billion the trade surplus projection for 2022, because of the price of oil and fertilizers. Despite the drop in the estimate, this figure would guarantee a record trade surplus for the country.
Official estimates are updated every three months. Forecasts are more optimistic than those of the financial market. The Focus bulletin, a survey of market analysts released every week by the Central Bank, projects a surplus of US$ 67.2 billion this year.
