This Tuesday, the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) will disclose the result of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2022, and different analysts and market players expect it to be around 12%, bearing in mind the dynamics that economic activity showed between April and June.
(Tax, external accounts, GDP and employment, Petro challenges).
Some market players such as Banco de Bogotá, decided to set the bar high: the entity’s bet is 13%. According to Gustavo Acero, the bank’s senior economist, the entity has a “Balance of sectors on the upside. Trade and industry are very strong, and what we see recurrently with manufacturing production and trade sales are variations that exceed the aggregate”. This, he explains, is also reflected on the consumption side.
On the opposite front, Acero mentions that mining has not yet reached the pre-pandemic thresholds, and that in the agricultural sector, coffee production has been affected by the weather. “The primary sector would have one of the smallest contributions to the quarter,” he says.
From Grupo Bolívar Davivienda, it is expected that the economy grew 12.6% led by the good performance of the manufacturing sector, followed by commerce and services.
Andrés Langebaek, the director of economic research, assured that the most lagging sector will continue to be mining, since neither oil nor coal have seen favorable results, and “That a good part of the dynamics of the quarter is associated with a base effect relative to the low growth we had last year due to unemployment, especially in the month of May.”
A slightly lower projection is handled by both Asobancaria and Bancolombia, which expect the Colombian economy to register an expansion of 12.5% for the period. From the banking union, it is considered that the figure is associated with the good behavior of private consumption and sectors such as commerce, telecommunications and industry.
(Analysts raise GDP growth prospects to 6.4% for 2022).
In the case of the bank, Juan Pablo Espinosa, director of investigations for Bancolombia, argued that “This result would be possible thanks to the statistical effect of the impact that national unemployment had on GDP in the second quarter of 2021 and the good dynamics of consumption so far in 2022.”
Two other entities are also above 12%: Credicorp (12.2%) and Itaú (12.1%). From the latter, Carolina Monzón, its economic research manager, highlighted that the figure “It would remain in double digits to the extent that the economy has continued its reactivation process, a very favorable performance of consumption has been seen and the labor market has shown a significant recovery.”
Monzón also recalled that in June a VAT-free day was held, which would have also boosted economic activity and that positive dynamics are expected from industry and entertainment.
From the economic studies center Anif, on the other hand, real GDP growth is expected to be in a range of 12% to 12.5%. According to the entity, the results of the leading indicators with a June cutoff and the Economic Monitoring Indicator (ISE) with a May cutoff suggest that the result of the GDP for the second quarter of the year will be above initial expectations.
A MORE MODEST LOOK
There are also several analysts who prefer to keep their forecast below 12%. “We expect growth close to 11.5% during the second quarter. Consumption will continue to be the engine behind this good figure, followed by the dynamics of investment”, said Munir Jalil, chief economist at BTG Pactual.
The same projection is maintained by Scotiabank Colpatria. According to Sergio Olarte, its chief economist, the sectors that are driving growth the most are those related to services such as hotels and tourism, retail sales, and education, while manufacturing is also recovering despite the high costs of imported inputs.
“However, those same leading indicators are beginning to show a slight slowdown in the economy, since household savings after the pandemic are running out and it is noted that the effect of remittances may also fade”Olarte assured.
(Colombia’s GDP would grow 6.3% in 2022, according to IMF projections).
Growth would be even more tenuous according to Mauricio Hernández, an economist at Bbva Research for Colombia, GDP will grow 10.8% annually in the second quarter of 2022 and the sectors with the best behavior will be trade (due to the high consumption of households and the greater demand for transport for foreign trade), industry (due to the boost in domestic demand and the good external dynamics) and services (due to the good dynamism of tourism and other expenses in household services).
Corficolombiana is at an estimate of 10.5%, a forecast also shared by the economic studies center Fedesarrollo.
Julio César Romero, an economist from the economic research department of Corficolombiana, assured that “The low statistical base, associated with the national unemployment in May 2021, explains the high annual variation.”
Romero predicts that the branch of commerce, restaurants, hotels and transportation would have been the main engine of growth, while the capital-intensive sectors such as mining, energy and infrastructure would have a lower performance than the entire economy as a whole.
LAURA LUCIA BECERRA ELEJALDE
Twitter: @LauraB_Elejalde
