The wheat harvest has already advanced on more than half of the area planted with the cereal and speeds up the harvest work ahead of what will be one of the worst campaigns in the last decade, due to the drought and late frosts during critical moments of its development.
In its latest report on agricultural estimates at the national level, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) applied a new cut in the cereal production estimate of 300,000 tons to 11.5 million tons, a volume that, if materialized, will mean a drop 50% compared to the 23 million tons in the previous season.
A) Yes, the 2022/23 crop would be the third lowest since 2015/16, according to the stock exchange, while the average yield of 23 quintals per hectare (qq/ha) is positioned as the worst since 2010.
The 2022/23 harvest would be the third lowest since 2015/16.
With new adjustments in production projections In Córdoba, Buenos Aires and Santa Fe, the harvesters have already advanced over 62% of the 5.9 million suitable hectareswhile 900,000 hectares will not be threshed due to the poor state of the crop.
But beyond the “productive disaster” that occurred in the three aforementioned provinces, Entre Ríos stood out as one of those that had the best performancesurpassing even the results of previous campaigns.
“In Entre Ríos there are excellent yields that compensate for a good part of the drop in production. The temperature factor was key. The filling rate was excellent with temperatures of around 15°C. We had a climate similar to Tandil,” commented the technicians from the Bag of Cereals of the coastal province.
Beyond the “productive disaster” that occurred in the three aforementioned provinces, Entre Ríos stood out as one of those that had the best performance.
A) Yes, We went from estimating an average of 24 qq/ha in November to 34 qq/ha in Decemberwith which Entre Ríos “leaves an extra of more than half a million tons that offsets losses and maintains national productivity at 11.5 million.”
For its part, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) maintained its production forecast at 12.4 million tons, over an area of 6.1 million hectares, which marks an expected drop in the volume to be obtained from 10 million tons.
Thus, the BCBA calculated an average yield of 19.6 qq/ha to date, when the cereal was already collected on 53.5% of the suitable area, with an accumulated volume of 5.8 million tons.
?300,000 tons less wheat
11.5 Mt is the new estimate for December. The wheat harvest confirms greater discounts in Córdoba, Buenos Aires and Santa Fe. But Entre Ríos offsets a good part of the drop in production.
?https://t.co/M3a5G7wuac pic.twitter.com/tzMSw6r3sL
— BCR Press (@BCRprensa) December 15, 2022
Despite this better figure, the stock exchange remarked that In a large part of the Cordoba territory, the yields obtained were located on average 60% below the records of the last campaign, while in areas such as the north of La Pampa and the west of Buenos Aires the drop was around 42%.
Of course This 50% drop in production is correlated with the volumes exported to date.
According to the Rosario Stock Exchange, taking the wheat ships dispatched between December 1 and 15 and those scheduled to ship until the 31st of said month, It is estimated that 540,000 tons of cereal will be shipped abroad, 66% less than the volume shipped in all of December 2021, when 1.6 million embarked.
“This lower volume dispatched compared to previous years responds, obviously, to the limited production as a result of the terrible drought that plagues our country”, explained the work of the stock exchange entity.
On the other hand, if the volume of Affidavits of Foreign Sales (DJVE) declared for wheat 2022/23 is compared according to the data reported by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries in December of the current year, which reaches 2,926. 800 tons, it can be estimated that only 19% of what was declared will be shipped in the current month.
This situation is also possible thanks to the measure implemented by the national government at the beginning of last November, which allows to extend the declared shipments for 360 days in order to ensure the internal consumption of the cereal and the export contracts.
