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The rarest indicators of the economy to forecast a recession

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The rarest indicators of the economy to forecast a recession

A financial worker at the New York Stock Market, concerned about declines in the Wall Street stock indices.

The bike index

The high prices of fuels and the low expectations of families can encourage the use of the bicycle as an alternative transport. The consequence of this decision is an increase in cyclist accidents in previous or recessionary times.

The data

In 2021, the number of pedestrians killed increased 13% annually and the number of bicyclists killed in crashes rose 5% annually, the largest increases since 1981 and 1980, respectively, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said. Traffic on Highways (NHTSA).

diapers index

This concept is based on the fact that, to save money, parents try to change babies’ diapers fewer times.

The data

In its latest quarterly report, Procter & Gamble saw its share prices fall as its earnings and sales growth forecasts were lower than expected. The leading company in sales of diapers with the Pampers brand estimates that consumption will drop due to the effects of inflation.

beer index

It is one of the most intuitive, because in the absence of money, households can restrict the intake of alcoholic beverages, especially in bars and restaurants. Thus, beer sales can be a “thermometer” for countries with high consumption, such as the cases of Mexico or Germany and even the United States.

The data

Recently, Japan found it necessary to launch a contest to encourage alcohol consumption in bars and restaurants, with the aim of boosting the industry and returning to collecting the level of taxes that existed before the COVID pandemic.

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