The Brazilian real and the Chilean peso recorded the biggest losses against the dollar than the peso on the exchange day, although The Colombian currency continued to advance towards the psychological ceiling of $5,000 and stood today at $4,968.94, the sixth highest consecutive historical record.
(Colombian economy: how convenient would it be to dollarize it?).
In fact, in the foreign exchange market transactions in which intermediaries intervene, a rate of $4,999 was presented, which was the highest of the day, compared to a minimum of $4,925, which was also the price with which it opened.
The closing market price was $4,990 and the average price was $4,968.75.
Nevertheless, the amount traded of US$956 million was one of the lowest in recent days, because the average negotiation is US$1,150 million.
This fact, according to the financial analyst Diego Rodríguez, shows that the foreign exchange market has low liquidity, which means that in the event of low amounts negotiated, the prices of the currency may vary.
According to statistics, the devaluation of the peso during 2022 accumulates 24.81% and in the last 12 months the figure reaches 31.44%.
Likewise, since the beginning of this year the official price of the greenback in Colombia has registered a rise of $987.78.
(And now, who can defend us?: the ways to stop the dollar).
As a special fact, this year the volatility of the dollar shows a maximum increase of $1.261, since on April 5 the TRM stood at $3,706.
Diego Gómez, a specialist in the foreign exchange market at Corficolombiana, said that the depreciation was generalized and in the region the real and the Chilean peso had a greater fall than the Colombian peso.
“We were not the most depreciated in Latin America, but we have had worse days for the peso,” said the analyst.
In addition, with the upward trend in inflation and the interest rate policy of many central banks and especially the Federal Reserve, the strength of the dollar is a fact.
For the foreign exchange specialist “the only certainty is uncertainty and in local matters there is much to be defined in terms of hydrocarbon policy, which is a key factor.”
In addition, he considered that external financing and the bad news is the increase in imports, which shows that demand is not falling. “We import with a well-depreciated exchange rate and that shows signs that the current account deficit is being pressured, since exports have also begun to moderate,” says Gómez.
In the midst of the uncertainty of the dollar market, the news contrasted in the public debt market as the rates of public debt securities (TES) registered a decrease in the rate and therefore the price improved.
TES rates fall
2024 TES closed at 13.400% versus Friday when they finished at 13.535%. Those of 2026 finished at 14.551% against a previous close of 14.628%.
The 2028 expiry reference closed at 14.650% vs. 14.841% on Friday and the 2032 ones closed at 14.625% vs. Friday’s 14.965%.
(Inflation, a big problem: experts predict how long it will last).
Diego Rodríguez assures that the country is seeing the influence of global macro funds that operate the Colombian peso from New York, far from the reach of the central bank because they take advantage of a shallow market that is easy to manipulate. They also bet on political uncertainty, an error in economic measures and use the peso to leverage bets in favor of the Brazilian real.
Edgar Jiménez, professor of Finance at the Jorge Tadeo Lozano University, says that the next meeting of the Federal Reserve will be key for the market, where the message is expected to be softer and in the end inflation will slowly begin to give way due to monetary policies. contractionists.
He even assures that currently the exchange rate would be discounting these increases in interest rates at the international level “but if there is good news at the end of the year they at the Fed could lower the increase at that speed.”
Funding issue may be key
For Alberto Bernal, head of global strategy at XP Securities, he says that there is a clear international effect on the strength of the dollar due to the increase in Fed rates, the problems in England and the war in Ukraine, “but if you compare the country with Brazil, Mexico and Chile the reason is very simple and it is that Colombia has a big financing problem, since it depends on oil and mining resources, with a high current account deficit”.
He said that additionally think about accelerating the exodus of the economy to stop depending on hydrocarbons is a blunder. “The bad thing is that investors don’t expect that much. This changes now or it is going to get more difficult, ”she assured.
Andrés Langebaek, director of Economic Studies of Grupo Bolívar, assured that “the figures of the exchange balance suggest that, although September began with strong flows of foreign portfolio investment, it ended with outflows.”
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