By Alfredo Schram
Black Swans is a metaphor that analysts often use to describe singular, unexpected events with a huge impact on the economy and politics.
In recent months, black swans have been a cause for concern on the part of the market due to their possible impact, as is the case with the inmates of the Colorado party and the general elections next year.
We are at the gates of the definition of presidential candidacies for 2023. On December 18, the internal ones are held, where there are two main main actors: the ANR and the Concertación hegemonized by the PLRA and a third represented by Euclides Acevedo, contextualized the specialized journalist in politics, Estela Ruíz Díaz, during her presentation of the 2023 perspectives of Development in Democracy (Dende), at her traditional year-end closing event.
Why do I say flyby of black swans? Because things happened that interfered in the electoral course and had a political impact, especially in the Colorado Party,” said the analyst.
The events that moved the table have to do with the decision of the United States to declare Horacio Cartes and Hugo Velázquez significantly corrupt. This had an impact on the ANR because it removed the Vice President of the Republic from the presidential race, who practically hurriedly nominated himself.
On the other hand, uncertainty persists as to whether Cartes will take the second step; the extradition request, while Lugo’s illness divided the Guasú Front.
The red inmate is once again marked by the dispute between Horacio Cartes and Mario Abdo Benítez. In 2017, Marito beat the Dolphin of Cartes (Santiago Peña) and this year, the businessman bets on the same candidate again.
But unlike previous inmates that always convulse the country, the current ones are marked by the role of the US, which by designating Horacio Cartes as significantly corrupt, first and then Vice President Hugo Velázquez, generated a political earthquake due to the political-electoral consequences.
«At first it seemed that it was against Cartes, but then the bomb was more thunderous for the ruling party because it took Hugo Velázquez out of the electoral race. With this, he decreed the defeat of the ruling party », the journalist graphed.
The uncertainty continues, because it is speculated that the US will request the extradition of Cartes and that could once again change the electoral board and open a dangerous floodgate to instability. Will he do it before boarding school or after? she wondered.
This is how the red inmate arrives on December 18. With the sword of Damocles above and uncertainty not because of the electoral dispute but because of what the US can do.
There is a doubt that leaves this position. By hitting Cartes and the ruling party by taking his candidate out of the race, are you betting on the Concertación?, he slipped.
In his opinion, the short campaign time of the new pro-government candidate, Arnoldo Wiens, may be insufficient to turn what most of the polls say in favor of Peña. De Ganar Wiens, he believes that the “republican embrace” will take place faster.
As long as the political scenario is not defined, many new investments are waiting, they maintain from the private sector.
Economics is undoubtedly the branch of knowledge where the black swan theory has the most implications. In fact, all the events considered as black swans have caused a change in the preferences of investors in the short term and, therefore, in the evolution of the markets.
In the book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb explains why events that are highly improbable to experts can take place with devastating consequences.