The reduction in unemployment and the improvement in family income in 2024 meant that services provided to families reached the highest level since February 2015.
The finding is part of the Monthly Services Survey (PMS), released this Wednesday (15) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
In November, the survey shows, these activities expanded by 1.7% compared to October.
Services provided to families are one of the five large groups of activities researched by IBGE to measure the performance of the services sector as a whole, which also includes activities such as transport, postal services, telecommunications and information technology.
Overall, the sector had a decline of 0.9% from October to November. Services provided to families have a weight of 8.24% in the PMS.
From May to November 2024, these services grew 6.7%, compared to the same period in 2023. There were six monthly increases and one stability (0% variation). In the last 12 months, the expansion is 5%.
In 2023, the gain in the period (May to November) was similar, 6.6%. However, the research manager, Rodrigo Lobo, highlights that throughout 2024, eight of the 11 monthly rates for services provided to families were positive and with greater intensity.
The numbers worked as a lever for the category to surpass the level of February 2015. However, it is still 5.7% from the highest point ever reached, in May 2014. The IBGE historical series began in January 2011.
Income effect
Among the services provided to families are activities such as restaurants, catering services, theater and musical shows, hotels, amusement parks, gyms, laundry, hairdressing and language teaching.
The research manager, Rodrigo Lobo, points out that the sequence of consecutive monthly results makes it possible to relate the performance of the group of activities with the positive behavior of the level of employment and income in the country. According to him, there is a sufficiently relevant set to make a relationship between the sector and employment and income data.
“The greater frequency and intensities of fees in this sector in the year 2024 may be linked to improvements in the job market and income level, meaning that more people will be able to consume services such as restaurants, accommodation, gyms, showsetc.”, assesses Lobo.
Economic scenario
Economist Juliana Trece is coordinator of FGV’s GDP Monitor – FGV/Disclosure
The most recent labor market data shows that the unemployment rate, better known as unemployment, closed the quarter ended in November by 6.1%. This is the lowest index in the historical series of the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad), started in 2012 by IBGE.
In November, the average income was R$3,285, growth of 3.4% compared to the same period in 2023. The mass of income – the sum of what is received by all workers – was a record, R$332.7 billion, with an increase of 7.2% in one year.
Economist Juliana Trece, from the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre) at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), highlights the need for there to be a marriage between the heated job market and the level of investment in the economy, so that economic growth is sustainable.
“The heated job market is great in terms of the performance of economic activity. However, this generates an increase in demand from families, which could result in inflationary pressure if supply does not keep up with this increase in demand. This is why we have an environment in which GDP [Produto Interno Bruto, conjunto de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país] has a strong performance, but inflation has exceeded the target”, he told Brazil Agency.
“So that economic growth does not put pressure on inflation, it is essential that investments materialize, so that the economy’s capacity grows. In 2024 investments grew, but structurally the Brazil has difficulties in having a high investment level”, adds the coordinator of FGV’s GDP Monitor, a study that seeks to provide data on the behavior of the Brazilian economy.
Inflation and interest
The heated economy was one of the factors that caused 2024 inflation (4.83%) to exceed the target, according to experts and the Central Bank (BC).
The so-called “output gap”, which can be understood as a measure of how much the economy grows above potential and causes inflationary pressure, was one of the points mentioned by the BC in the open letter sent to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, to explain the the fact that inflation exceeds the target ceiling of 4.5%.
