Today: November 27, 2024
March 18, 2022
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Russia owes very little abroad

Gustavo Volmar

Many nations, including ours, would like the level of their public debt to be similar to that of Russia. Close to 20% of GDP, this level is barely a fraction of what other countries exhibit, including Japan, which, although recognized for its austerity, is indebted at more than 200% of GDP. Or also the US where public debt is equivalent to 133% of GDP. This has not always been the case, however, as revealed by the fact that in 1998 the russian debt rose to 144% of GDP.

Even if all the commitments are added up, both from the government and from banks, industries, private issuers of securities and guarantees granted, the external debt Russia at the end of 2021 was only 478 billion dollars. And the data is even more enviable if the situation of its balance of payments is considered. Indeed, in January of this year the trade balance, which measures the exchange of goods abroad, showed a balance in favor of Russia rising to 21 billion dollars, compared to 9 billion in 2021. If services are added, the current account balance was favorable at 19 billion in January 2022, 11 billion more than in the first month of the year. last year. As a result, the Russian central bank’s holdings of foreign currency and gold give it ample room to face sanctions without neglecting its obligations.

Paradoxically, owing so little to foreign creditors can be limiting in conditions of international confrontation. The russian debt it is so low that the threat of not paying it because of the sanctions does not intimidate the nations that have imposed them. The selective default, applicable to investors from those nations, does not generate great pressure on their governments or trigger a crisis in world financial markets.

In this sense, the criterion is applied that the most indebted individuals are the ones who have more people begging for their health to remain good and nothing bad happens to them.

Doctor of Economics from Columbia University specialized in companies, markets, forecasts and risk.

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