Although it is clear that it cannot be considered as a tax reform, since it does not impose new taxes on the fiscal system, the moves prepared by the Ministry of Finance to square the box through an increase in self -retention at the source did not fall well in the market, since They were considered as a remedy that can leave more expensive than the disease.
This is the draft decree that the Ministry of Finance and the Directorate of National Taxes and Customs (DIAN) published for comments and seeks to modify the self -retention scheme at the source for income tax, according to these entities, based on the path of reactivation that the country is experiencing. This triplet measure In some cases the amounts to be paid by companies, which could affect their liquidity.
Also read: Commerce grew 7.5% in February: 16 merchandise lines closed with green figures
Several analysts consulted by Portfolio agree that this change in the rules of the game must be reviewed carefully, since on the one hand it confirms that the national government is desperate to overcome its fiscal Afugias and on the other, it does not solve the problem and only posts the urgency of solving it by means of an effective cut of public spending, as has been suggested several times.
For José Manuel Restrepo, rector of the EIA University and former Minister of Finance, What is being done could be taken as a “quasi-tax reform” that some billion could give it in the near future, at the expense of sacrificing fiscal stability and raising cash needs later.
Economic crisis
Istock
“The consequence is two. One, from the fiscal point of view, squeezes the 2026 budget because there will be less cash resources available to cover with the tax obligations of that year, a year where there is a government transit, then it would affect the incoming government especially,” he said.
For Restrepo Abondano, the second consequence “is that it squeezes the productive sector excessively because it elevates cash needs and therefore will eventually lead to some actors to borrow to cover tax obligations, then solve a decadre of the National Government’s cash at the coast of the business sector. ”
It may interest you: Industry fell 1.2% in February: the departments that lower their production
Sudden changes
Specifically, the measure includes an adjustment of self -retention rates for almost all economic sectors, with relevant increases in extractive industries such as coal and oil. In the case of coal, the rate would go from 3.2%to 5.5%, which represents an increase of 72%. In crude oil, the adjustment would be 5.6% to 7%. This new scheme would replace what is established in Decree 242 of 2024.
José Ignacio López, president of ANIF, clarified that this decree does not bring New taxes and that it is simply to modify early payments, so it cannot be proposed that taxation increases, since it simply changes when the same taxes are paid.
Is Colombia the country that will lead the list of Latin American countries with the best minimum wages? Discens it.
Istock
“For companies it is a surviving fact, we will have to see the punctual sector calibration by sector, but this can generate cash stress in some sectors that are not having these withholdings, and that implies less resources this year, in the face of some credits or advances of payments per year, knowing that sometimes the returns of the DIAN are very complicated,” he said.
The president of Anif added that this “is a sign that the government is concerned about the cash issue, and probably, if that is the concern, I believe that the signals should be of public spending reduction, this in general is to exacerbate problems for next year, and it can be an poisoned inheritance for the next government, to the extent that resources are transferred from 2026 to 2025 by greater retention ”.
More information: How many square meters could buy with $ 4.3 billion in the most luxurious cities
Solvency and liquidity
An important concept that is worth bringing to this debate is that of the Executive Director of Economic Investigations of Corfi, César Pabón, who recalled that it is not the same liquidity as solvency, since the first is a short -term concept, while the second evaluates the capacities towards the future and that is where it is precisely failing.
“Liquidity is the ability to fulfill its immediate obligations; Solvency, on the other hand, is related to its ability to sustain its finances over time. This measure partially addresses the liquidity problem, but leaves unsolved – and could even get worse – the solvency problem. Anticipating future income generates momentary relief, but at the expense of opening a greater fiscal hole in the coming years, which deepens the structural challenges, ”he warned.
Germán Ávila – Minister of Finance.
Courtesy – Minhacienda
It should be remembered that the project establishes new rates for hundreds of economic activities, with rates that range between 0.55% and 4.5%, depending on the sector and although all are affected, the largest load falls on industries such as coal extraction (Hulla); Natural gas extraction, generation and marketing of energy and collection, treatment and distribution of water; All with 4.5%.
“Although it provides a certain respite in the short term, it does so at the expense of future income, which generates a significant cost in terms of fiscal sustainability. In an international environment marked by uncertainty, this type of solutions can increase the country risk and the perception of instability, which finally ends up more expensive the exit of this complex situation, ”added Pabón.
Outstanding news: Barrios de Bogotá that will have maintenance cuts during Holy Week
Finally, Jorge Restrepo, a professor at the Javeriana University, points out that although the project does not imply a strict tax reform, it does represent a liquidity tightness that can have fiscal and even macroeconomic effects.
“The problem is no longer of postponements or cuts. The box is at the limit And that severely limits the execution of spending, ”he said. In his opinion, this situation could have been handled with a more aggressive budget cut, which would send a sign of fiscal discipline both to the markets and the Bank of the Republic.
He also warned that the private sector will have to seek greater liquidity to meet these new demands, which could press the financial system in an environment in which the economy is not precisely “overheated.”
For now, it only remains to wait if the Ministry of Finance incorporates the various opinions that have emerged throughout this debate on the draft decree in the final text issued to advance the self -realions or if, that many consider an unlikely scenario, It is played for not issuing the norm and adopting a more aggressive fiscal cut for this validity and that of 2025.
