Rafael Quiroz said that the lack of Russian crude that can be contributed by Venezuelan crude, for now comes from Canada, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil and even Iraq, according to what was reported by the US Department of Energy.
The economist and expert on oil issues, Rafael Quiroz, pointed out that this is the time to turn around the national oil industry, since there is an environment of high crude oil prices. and the possibility that it could last for about two years.
He indicated that according to the forecasts of the investment banks and consultants of the sector, it should be the best incentive to turn around the national oil industry and the concomitant benefits that they bring to the economy as a whole, since it continues to be the main source of foreign exchange of the country.
It should be noted that without the help of the joint ventures, PDVSA has only been able to increase production, basically in the Orinoco Belt, with the help of the Iranian condensate, and it will only be able to firmly recover full production with the reactivation of joint ventures, for which it is necessary to modify the OFAC licenses that only allow Chevron, for example, maintenance work.
Third Party Search
Quiroz explained that the crucial point of this possible resurrection of production is that it would not rest solely on the efforts of Pdvsabut from third parties, who will want the business conditions to be made more flexible to bring in capital and resume their activities.
All this reinforced by more advantageous legal and fiscal conditions, taking into account that investing in Guyana, Suriname and Brazil and even in the American shale, it can be much more attractive than doing it in Venezuela.
On another topic, he specified that there has been pressure for a new oil opening and specifically for a modification of the Organic Hydrocarbons Law, which changes the shareholding structure of mixed companies.
“Eliminating PDVSA’s majority stake per se, but without it losing operational control of the national oil industry,” he added.
He said that what is happening is that the gap that can be easily and quickly filled by Venezuelan crude, for now, crude from Canada, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil and even Iraq is covering that gap according to what was reported by the US Department of Energy.
“This trend can consolidate and leave a golden opportunity for Venezuela later,” he warns.
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He considers that the approach of the Joe Biden government is a tremendous opportunity, and that it should be taken advantage of, if the Venezuelan economy and the well-being of its workers are to be raised.
“The ball is in the court of the Maduro government, and it must certainly make credible democratic opening decisions. It is a window that is now open, but that can be closed as other producers begin to fill the gap left by the suspension of US imports of Russian crude and products, “he warned.
Review the pact with Russia
Rafael Quiroz assured that it is time to straighten out the oil industry, due to what is happening with Russian oil, which anticipates a decline in its oil production of around two million barrels per day and a more pronounced impact on its exports.
“The Maduro government must understand the inconvenience of continuing with an external political alliance that does not benefit it at all,” he added.
Likewise, he expressed that it is not only that Russia is now going to displace it from the Chinese market and Iran as well, once a new pact on its nuclear program is reached, «But the cash flow of PDVSA, which goes through the management of Russian banks, is very compromised and can worsen by suspending the clearing activity of other Russian banks on SWIFT, and the approval of secondary sanctions that will end up inhibiting world trade and entirely blocking any financial relationship with Russia is in the air.
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