Official inflation, measured by the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), should close this year at 5.92%, according to forecasts made by financial institutions and published today (5) not Focus bulletin, from the Central Bank (BC). The document is published weekly. In the last edition, the projection was 5.91%.
The estimate for 2023 also rose, from 5.02% to 5.08%. Projections for 2024 and 2025 were maintained at 3.5% and 3%, respectively.
The forecast for 2022 is above the ceiling of the inflation target defined by the BC’s National Monetary Council, which is between 2% and 5%. Likewise, the market projection for 2023 inflation is also above the predicted ceiling.
GDP
O Focus bulletin also shows that financial institutions raised the projection of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the sum of all goods and services produced in the country – for this year, from 2.81% to 3.05%.
For 2023, the expectation is that the Brazilian economy will grow by 0.75%, a forecast above the one made in the previous week (0.70%). For 2024 and 2025, the financial market projects GDP growth of 1.71% and 2%, respectively.
Interest rate
The basic interest rate (Selic) should close the year at the current 13.75% per annum, the same forecast as the previous week. The last meetings of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which sets the Selic rate, will take place tomorrow (6) and fourth-Friday (7).
The forecast of Focus bulletin for 2023 is for the Selic to stay at 11.75%, above the 11.5% projected last week. The estimate for 2024 also rose, from 8.25% last week to 8.50% this week. For 2025, the Selic forecast was maintained at 8% per year.
Exchange
Regarding the exchange rate, financial institutions forecast that the dollar will end the year at R$5.25, down from R$5.27 last week. In 2023, the projection of BRL 5.25 was maintained. In the following two years, there was an increase in projections: from BRL 5.20 to BRL 5.23 in 2024 and from BRL 5.20 to BRL 5.21 in 2025.
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