The increase in spending on fertilizers and fuel made the Ministry of Economy revise its trade surplus projection (exports minus imports) in 2022 downwards. The estimate fell from US$ 111.6 billion forecast in April to US$ 81.5 billion, 27% reduction. Every three months, the government releases a new forecast.
Despite the drop, this should be the best annual result of the trade balance since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989. The best trade surplus recorded to date was last year, when the country exported US$ 61.407 billion more than it imported, benefited from the appreciation of commodities (primary goods with international quotation).
According to the undersecretary of Intelligence and Foreign Trade Statistics of the Ministry of Economy, Herlon Brandão, the decrease in the estimate is related to the high costs of imports of fuels and fertilizers. “The review is a consequence of a greater expense [com importações] caused by rising prices, given the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and all the disruptions we see in supply chains,” he explained.
Both import and export estimates rose. The projection for purchases from abroad rose from US$ 237.2 billion forecast in April to US$ 268 billion now. On the export side, the forecast was slightly adjusted, rising from US$ 348.8 billion to US$ 349.4 billion. The values are record values for these parameters.
impact of war
The war between Russia and Ukraine impacted the balance of trade in June. Due to the increase in spending on items that made the conflict more expensive, the surplus last month totaled US$ 8.814 billion, down 15.4% compared to June 2021.
International prices of fertilizers and fertilizers rose 144.7% in June, compared to the same month last year. The average price of fuel purchased from abroad increased by 104.4% in the same comparison. In wheat, another product that Brazil imports in large quantities, the high reaches 44.6%.