The idea of US military action to remove Daniel Ortega from power comes from his own family. Humberto Ortega Saavedra, brother of the Nicaraguan dictator, contemplates a “lightning surgical action” on the part of the North American Government. But under what conditions would the United States do it?
A former soldier of the Nicaraguan Army, on condition of anonymity, considers that Nicaragua “is not that important to the US.” to organize an action of that caliber, neither for strategic reasons nor for internal political reasons.
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The North American country would carry out an action of this nature, according to the source, if Ortega invades Costa Rica or Nicaragua serves as a platform to organize and carry out terrorist attacks within the United States.
«I do not see on the horizon the possibility of a “lightning surgical action” against the Ortega regime. The situation is completely different from what existed in the 1980s when the struggle for world dominance, between the capitalist bloc led by the USA and the socialist bloc led by the Soviet Union, against the background of nuclear weapons capable of destroying to humanity, it represented an existential threat to both,” he argued on condition of anonymity.
«The contradictions between the powers are of a different nature, with China the battlefield is technology, trade and investments; “and Russia is no longer the power it once was,” she adds.
“Loosen internal repression” to maintain their interests
Furthermore, he criticizes Humberto Ortega for not being interested in his brother’s departure from power; Rather, he wants the interests of the dictator’s regime to be preserved, but internal repression must be “loosened” and be less “submissive” in relations with his new allies.
“Their ideal situation is similar to the one that existed before 2018 when the authoritarian regime was already installed and the democratic institutions dismantled, but the Government had a certain internal legitimacy, backed by big capital, and international legitimacy,” he warns.
Héctor Mairena, director of the Blue and White National Unit (Unab), points out that this statement by the dictator’s brother and former head of the Sandinista Popular Army is a sign of the deep crisis that is accentuating within the Nicaraguan dictatorship.
«It is very likely that within Ortega’s party the issue of succession is being raised. “This article by Humberto Ortega seeks to draw attention to sectors within Ortega,” he highlights.
Former liberal councilor Alfredo Gutiérrez believes that Humberto’s narrative is “unreal”, that he sees Nicaraguans as “idiots” for trying to sell a panorama distant from reality. He states that what he wants is to “protect his brother’s regime.”
Former guerrilla Dora María Téllez considers that the dictatorship’s actions have turned Ortega into a “dangerous element” for the national security of the United States and Europe by facilitating migrant smuggling and drug trafficking, but she does not know the reasons for the actions. statements of Humberto Ortega.
The proximity to Russia, China and the constant violations of the human rights of Nicaraguans could be the reasons for the execution of military action by the North American administration, according to political scientist José Antonio Peraza.
“Delusions of persecution”
Gutiérrez refers to the idea of the military invasion that Ortega Saavedra refers to to the “delusions of persecution” that the Ortega supporters have carried since the first Sandinista dictatorship in the 1980s.
«If the United States sees that Venezuela and Nicaragua have become very annoying, I would buy Humberto Ortega’s thesis, of saying: “let’s get rid of this evil that would not imply great costs for us with current technology.” For the United States to free itself from that annoying thing (Daniel Ortega), it would take hours,” said Peraza.
Mairena assures that he does not see “realism” in the possibility of a military intervention in Nicaragua by the United States because the North American country “has other priorities.”
«Military interventions are not on the agenda. I think what Humberto does is stir up that ghost when he likes to draw the attention of public opinion and the bases of Ortegaism,” Mairena concluded.
