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Market increases forecast for inflation for the 11th time this year

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The financial market increased its inflation forecast for this year for the 11th consecutive time. According to a projection by the Focus Bulletin, released today (28) by the Central Bank, the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) should close this year at 6.86%. A week ago, the market forecast was that inflation this year would be 6.59%%. Four weeks ago, the forecast was 5.6%.

Published weekly, the Focus Bulletin gathers the projection of more than 100 market institutions for the main economic indicators of the country. For 2023, the market also increased its projection of the IPCA variation. As a result, this week’s projection points to an inflation of 3.8% compared to the 3.75% projected last week. Four weeks ago, the projection was for an inflation of 3.51% next year.

For 2024, the market also raised last week’s estimate and projected inflation of 3.2%, up from 3.15% last week.


In this week’s projection, Focus kept the forecast of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, sum of goods and services produced in the country) recorded seven days ago. With this, the projection for 2022 is at 0.5%.

For 2023, however, the Focus Bulletin also maintained last week’s forecast of 1.3% growth in the economy. Four weeks ago, the forecast was that GDP would grow by 1.5%. For 2024, the projection was stable at 2%.

Interest rate and exchange

The market also maintained last week’s forecast for the basic interest rate, the Selic, for 2022. In the projection released this Monday, the Selic should remain at 13%.

On the 16th, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) raised the Selic ratefrom 10.75% to 11.75% per year, as a way to reduce economic activity and contain the rise in prices.

For the end of 2023, the market estimate for the Selic is that the base rate will remain at 9% per year, the same projection as last week. For 2024, the Selic forecast remained stable compared to last week, at 7.5% per year.

With regard to the exchange rate, the market’s expectation for the dollar exchange rate in 2022 has decreased, reaching R$5.25, compared to R$5.30 last week.

For next year, the market forecast also showed a drop in the exchange rate projection, in relation to the one released in the previous week. With that, the projection went from R$ 5.22 to R$ 5.20 this week. For 2024, the estimate for the price of the American currency was R$ 5.20.

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