Industrial production drops 2.4% in January

Ipea estimates recovery of trade, industry and services in February

After a new peak in cases of covid-19 in January, the month of February saw a recovery in economic activity in industry, commerce and services compared to January, estimates an analysis released today (30) by the Institute of Economic and Applied Research (Ipea). Official data on the performance of the economy have not yet been released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Ipea estimates recovery of trade, industry and services in February

Ipea points out that the scenario for the industry in February was the most challenging. Among the reasons are problems related to global production chains and the high costs of international freight. In addition, the price of electricity remains high, and the price of oil has been impacted by the war between Russia and Ukraine, important exporters in the oil and gas market.

Even with this scenario, Ipea’s Directorate of Macroeconomic Studies and Policies (Dimac) estimates that there was a 1.4% growth in industrial production in February, compared to January. In relation to February 2021, a drop of 3.1% was projected.

The institute’s researchers estimate that extractive industries had a positive contribution in February, with an expected growth of 7.5%. The manufacturing industry, on the other hand, should register a high of 0.8%.

Unlike industry, which fell by 2.4% in January 2022, the service sector remained stable even during the peak caused by the Ômicron variant, and the forecast for February is for a 1.5% increase compared to January.

The commerce sector must also have registered an increase in activity in February, according to Ipea, which estimates that growth may have been 1.3%, when sales of automobiles and construction materials are also considered. By excluding these two groups, the projection becomes a high of 1.2%.

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