Inflation will refuse to give Mexicans a break in January

Inflation will refuse to give Mexicans a break in January

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) will announce next Tuesday the price index for the first half of January.

Inflation closed November at 7.80% and December at 7.82%. In August of last year, the index reached a level not seen since December 2000 (8.7%).

For the underlying index, which is considered a better parameter to measure the trajectory of prices, the estimates indicate an interannual rate of 8.33%, with which it would roll four fortnights in a row in decline from the maximum of 8.66% that it reached in the first 15 days of November, detailed the Reuters survey.

Analysts who participated in the Citibanamex survey expect core inflation of 8.32%.

During this year, inflation is expected to begin to drop, ending 2023 at 5.10%, according to analysts consulted by Citibanamex, approaching the Bank of Mexico’s goal (3% +/- one percentage point).

Given the panorama shown by the consumer price index at the beginning of the year, the Banxico Governing Board is expected to increase the reference interest rate by 25 basis points, leaving it at 10.75%, according to the Citibanamex and Reuters surveys.

The deputy governor of Banxico Jonathan Heath sees one more increase in the interest rate, whose maximum may be between 10.75% and 11.5%, remaining at that level for a minimum time of six months for inflation to drop.

The next monetary policy announcement from Banco de México is on February 9.

With information from Reuters

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