Alejandro Padilla, deputy general director of Economic and Financial Analysis at Banorte, said in an interview that it is a fact that inflation will remain at rates of 7% for the rest of the year.
“All that remains of 2022, inflation will remain above 7%, in fact we bring 6.7% at the end of the year, but many months we will face very high prices,” he considered.
To combat these inflation rates, Banxico’s Governing Board has spoken of “forcefulness” in its next monetary policy decisions, that is, raising the rate between 50 and 75 basis points.
Although deputy governor Gerardo Esquivel has said that an increase of 75 basis points is not certain and that the discussion is only “on the table”, Padilla considered that it is very likely that at the June 23 meeting, monetary policy will tighten in those proportions.
“The conditions that the central bank is analyzing are still complex in a year in which there are adverse effects of the pandemic. For any central banker in the world it is a difficult decision,” he said.
Banorte forecasts that the rate could reach levels of 9.5%.
Padilla -with data from Banxico- warned that there is a risk of exchange depreciation that can generate pressure on the price of merchandise. The reasons? A more aggressive strategy of the Federal Reserve, in the United States, that strengthens the dollar and this implies higher prices for some products that Mexico imports.
“The international scene looks complicated and the risk of stagflation has been seen, but in our case we are going to be more closely related to what happens in US politics,” he stressed.