Inflation does not yield and in June it reached 9.67%, according to the figures made official yesterday by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane). This is the highest data in 22 years, which has not been seen since June 2000when inflation reached 9.68%.
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Between June 2021 and June 2022, the categories that have had a stronger weight in the price increase have been the food and non-alcoholic beverages, with inflation of 23.65%, and a contribution of almost four percentage points (pps) to inflation: 3.98 pps, and leases and utilities, with a weight of 1.92 pps in the total variation, the which have risen 5.88%. These are precisely the categories that have a greater weight in the basic basket of Colombians.
As for the incrementsafter the rise in food, the increases that have occurred in the category of restaurants and hotels (15.17%) and household cleaning products (13%); In contrast, the clothing branch stands at -0.01% and the information and communications branch has negative inflation of -7.09%.
“Annual inflation stands at 9.67% in June, more than 6 pps over the annual inflation we had in June 2021, which was 3.63%,” said Dane director Juan Daniel Oviedo.
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JUNE, ABOVE AVERAGE
Regarding the monthly data, according to Oviedo, this is the highest figure recorded for a month of June in the last 18 yearssince the variation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that was registered during the sixth month of the year was 0.51%.
This was especially driven by the sectors of accommodation, water, electricity and gas; and food and non-alcoholic beverages, which contributed 0.17 and 0.12 percentage points (pps), respectively, to the total variation of the indicator.
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“It is the first time in the last twelve months that rents and public services explain the highest contribution points, displacing food and non-alcoholic beverages,” said Oviedo, who assured that this shows a moderation in food inflation, but also an inertia in public services due to their indexing processes.
According to Dane, during June, the categories with the most significant variations in their prices were restaurants and hotels, with an increase of 1.06%; goods and services for the home and conservation, including cleaning products, which registered a variation of 0.96%, and transportation, with a rise of 0.75%.
By contrast, the day without VAT caused two sectors to fall, clothing and footwear (-2.64%) and information and communications (-0.24%), by the reduction in prices of telephone equipment.
Likewise, if we look at the data between January and June, in the first semester, the increase in the prices of the consumer basket was 7.09%, and food inflation in the first six months of the year reached 15.76%, followed by goods and services for home maintenance, with an increase of 11.09% in the semester.
TOWARDS THE CLOSE OF THE YEAR
For the second semester and the end of the year, market expectations indicate that inflation could moderate, but will remain high in the remainder of 2022.
The Banco de la República’s expectation survey for June placed the average market forecast for December at 8.78%, while in the latest Fedesarrollo Financial Opinion Survey (EOF) analysts predict that by the end of the year inflation will close at 8.49%.
LAURA LUCIA BECERRA ELEJALDE
BRIEFCASE
