A survey released this Friday (17) by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) shows a drop in optimism among industrial entrepreneurs in 28 of the 29 sectors that make up the Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (Icei), on a comparison basis in December 2021 with December 2020 – months in which the thirteenth salary is paid, which increases consumption expectations. Compared to November, however, the confidence level rises in 23 sectors.
According to the manager of Economic Analysis at CNI, Marcelo Azevedo, the index measures business confidence for the next six months and, in the case of December, also takes into account the effects that the thirteenth will have over the period. “December is a different month for that,” he told Brazil Agency.
Azevedo recalls that the situation the country found itself in in December 2020 was even more differentiated due to the expectation that the emergency aid paid by the government would “give a big boost” to the economy. “It was an atypical moment and a series of stimulus to demand that was reflected in stronger production”, summarizes the CNI manager.
“The industry was acting at a level above the pre-pandemic level because of the situation of people, who were directing part of their consumption to industrial products because of the aid. As a result, there was a need to retake stocks in a scenario in which the expectation was for the economy to overcome faster”, added Azevedo.
According to the Icei – Sectoral Results for December, 28 of the 29 sectors surveyed registered a drop in confidence, compared to December 2020, although, in all cases, the index remains above 50 points (margin that differentiates confidence from lack of business confidence for the next six months).
The sector of computer equipment, electronic products and others fell the most (-10.9 points), from 64 to 53.1 points in the Icei. “In that case, we have to take into account the fact that, at that moment, [dezembro de 2020], people were changing habits because of the home office. This movement, therefore, has already happened and is now being reversed”, explains Marcelo Azevedo. In November 2021, the sector’s Icei was at 51.4 points.
The second sector that fell the most in business confidence, when comparing December 2021 with December 2020, was textile products (-8.9 points, from 62.4 to 53.5 points). In November, the Icei of this group was at 52.6 points.
The Icei for the pulp, paper and paper products sector comes next, with a drop of 8.6 points compared to the December 2021 index (55 points) with 2020 (63.6 points). In comparison with November 2021, when the Icei was at 53.4 points, the index rose by 1.6 points.
The machinery and equipment sector, on the other hand, had a drop of 8.2 points, compared to December last year, now scoring 57.9 points (in November, the Icei was at 56.8 points). Plastic material products and non-metallic mineral products both registered an 8-point drop from December 2020.
The only sector in which the confidence index rose, based on December 2020, was the printing and reproduction of recordings (3.5 points more, going from 57.7 to 61.2 points). Last November, the sector’s Icei was at 58 points.
