Industrial production grew 2.9% in December 2021, after registering zero change (0.0%) in November, which interrupted five consecutive months of retraction. In the year, the accumulated gain was 3.9%. 
According to data from the Monthly Industrial Survey (PIM), released today (2), in Rio de Janeiro, by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), with the December result, the sector was 0.9% below the level February 2020, pre-pandemic period. It was still 17.7% below the record level recorded in May 2011.
According to the survey manager, André Macedo, the result of the annual closing reflects the loss of pace in the industry during 2021. He highlighted, however, that this is the first positive result after two years.
“In 2019, the accumulated for the year was -1.1% and, in 2020, -4.5%. In 2021, there was a decreasing characteristic throughout the year, since there was an accumulated gain of 13.0% in the first half and, later, the industrial sector showed a reduction of breath. The positive results of the first months of the year were related to a very depreciated basis of comparison, since in 2020 there were very intense losses for the industry”, he explained.
In the second half of the year, the accumulated reflected a different situation with a drop of 3.4%, because there was a higher basis for comparison. Macedo also noted that, in addition, the effects of the pandemic weighed on the production process, resulting in higher production costs and lack of raw materials, associated with other factors.
“On the domestic demand side, inflation at higher levels and the labor market, which, although it has shown some degree of recovery, is still very much characterized by the precariousness of employment conditions, with payment of lower wages,” he said.
Categories
In three of the four major economic categories and in 18 of the 26 activities analyzed by the survey, the industry also reached positive numbers in the year. The highlights were automotive vehicles, trailers and bodies (20.3%), machinery and equipment (24.1%) and metallurgy (15.4%).
André Macedo also said that 2021 was a year in which the industry grew over a period of great loss. Which, according to him, is a characteristic of the activity of motor vehicles, which, in 2020, had accumulated in the year of -27.9%. “So, it follows the same behavior as the general industry: it grows and stays in the positive field, although it has not reversed the losses of the previous year. In terms of products, the highlight is the advance in the production of trucks”, he highlighted.
For the research manager, this sector is an example of the disarticulation of production chains during the covid-19 pandemic. “In addition to the increase in production costs, there was a shortage of supplies at industrial plants, characterized by a lack of inputs and parts for the generation of the final good. Automobile production was marked by industrial plant shutdowns throughout 2021,” he noted.
In relation to November, most of the activities studied by the survey also had growth, with the expansion of 2.9% of the general industry. The activity of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies was the one that represented the greatest influence. In December, the segment rose 12.2% and was the fourth consecutive month of growth in the sector. In the period, it accumulated a gain of 17.4%.
The industry result was also influenced by the performance of food products. Despite this, despite having grown 2.9% in December, the sector had lower growth than the one presented in the previous month, when it reached 7.1%.
“This is the second month of growth in this activity and this gain is mainly due to the production of sugar and the return of beef exports to China”, he opined. Even with the positive result, the sector still remains 4.1% below the pre-pandemic level.
The positive results of computer equipment, electronic and optical products (12.0%), metallurgy (3.8%) and mining and quarrying industries (1.6%), also contributed to the gain of the industry, as well as those of non-metallic mineral products (2.0%), machinery and equipment (1.3%), cellulose, paper and paper products (1.7%) and leather, travel articles and footwear (4, 5%). Five activities showed a decline. The highlight was pharmochemical and pharmaceutical products (-6.9%), a result that eliminated the gain of 1.8% in November.
year by year
Compared to December 2020, industrial production fell by 5.0%. In this comparison, three of the four major economic categories and 20 of the 26 surveyed sectors recorded negative results. The main negative influences on activities were metallurgy (-13.9%), rubber and plastic products (-19.9%) and metal products (-19.1%).
The highlight among the six activities that increased was coke and petroleum products and biofuels (3.4%). The results of the mining and quarrying industries (2.0%), food products (1.8%) and cellulose, paper and paper products (6.1%) were also positive.
The sharpest decline among the major economic categories was in the durable consumer goods sector (-16.8%). In the semi- and non-durable consumer goods sector, the decline was 7.4% and, in the intermediate goods sector, 3.9%. The only increase among the major economic categories was registered by capital goods (5.8%).
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According to the IBGE, since the 1970s the Monthly Industrial Survey has produced short-term indicators relating to the behavior of the real product of extractive and manufacturing industries.
The release of the new series of monthly industrial production indexes began in May 2014, after “a reformulation to update the sample of activities, products and informants; elaboration of a new weighting structure for the indices based on the most recent industrial statistics, in order to integrate with the needs of the project to implement the Series of National Accounts – reference 2010; and adoption of new classifications of activities and products, used by other industry surveys since 2007: the National Classification of Economic Activities – Cnae 2.0 – and the List of Industry Products – Prodlist-Industry”, he concluded.
