The manager’s management peter castle It staggers after his resignation from the party that led him to the presidential chair (Free Peru). Although the relationship between Castillo and Vladimir Cerron was not one of the best, the ruler had with the support of a political organization; however, this situation has come to an end.
According to the specialist in political communication and director of Vox Pópuli, Luis Benavente, Castillo is in a complicated situation in which it is overlooking the need to establish agreements and have allies.
“He has gradually been losing a series of supports that he had.(…) he lost the left that had him on his side; he lost the Catholic Church; he lost the media that supported him in the electoral race; he now he is losing to Peru Libre”he referred.
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This lack of support would initially appear as an imbalance before the Legislature; It should be taken into account that Congress has shown a clear rejection of the Castillo government from the beginning.
Given this, Benavente conceives that his permanence as head of state is one of the main points to worry about.
Is a vacancy possible for Pedro Castillo?
“The first thing one can think of is that this, in the current political process, can lead directly to facilitating the terrain of the vacancywhich is not an easy road to get there either”, commented Benavente before this scenario.
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In addition, the political scientist Marylia Cruz considered that her departure “definitely implies a relative change between the forces of Congress and the support for Pedro Castillo.” “Free Peru has already been divided several times. We have the caucus in Congress that has more to do with a teaching nature, which I think would be the only support in the Legislative that it would have, ”he added.
The expert refers to the bench of the magisterial bloc of the National Concertation, what could secure the president a total of 10 votes in Parliament, but these would not be enough to be able to confirm his permanence in office.
This is also how Alonso Cárdenas, professor of Political Science at the Antonio Ruiz de Montoya University, conceives it, who pointed out that, apart from this caucus, “They would have to review the conceptions with other parliamentary groups, such as Alianza para el Progreso or Podemos Perú, to try to maintain that nucleus of 44 congressmen that avoids the vacancy, but the underlying issue is already like slapping the hands of a drowning man”.
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Permanence of Aníbal Torres and the negotiation strategy with other banks
Marylia Cruz agreed with Cárdenas in asserting that the distance between Castillo and Cerrón could attract a tendency to establish alliances with other parties. However, the expert specifies that this situation is more concerning to the holder of the PCM, Hannibal Torres.
“That function is held, a little more than the president, by the premier; and there my concern is whether the current premier might have the facility to talk to congress. Talk, for example, with the Alliance for Progress, talk with Podemos, among others”mentioned the specialist.
This position is also shared by Luis Benavente, who defined Torres as a politician who “He doesn’t have much negotiating power.”
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For Benavente, the prime minister “does not know how to negotiate, he does not understand what political negotiation is, he is not interested, he does not care. The exhaustion he has is strong”. “I believe that the president will have to see the option of changing Aníbal Torres, who has already completed his cycle; he already did what he had to do, he can’t do any more, ”he added.
If this is the case and Torres has to leave the PCM, Cruz concluded that special attention should be paid to the newly elected prime minister, since it is important to see what actions Castillo will take from now on, since he will not be subject to pressure from the political party from which he is moving away.
The Congress and the Government from the bills
The dynamics between Legislative and Executive will have to be more open before the benches, for Cruz. “Converse with benches that may not only support the Executive’s projects, but also try to stop some bills that may go against their Government”should be a new exercise to be used by the head of state.
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This idea is complemented by Benavente, who points out that these two powers have some points in common to deal with, as is the case of the law that seeks to penalize the leaking of fiscal investigations, or in laws that we have already seen, such as the bills that go against gender equity or the law that weakens the Sunedu.
The approval or rejection of these regulations “will depend on the issue at stake in each of these projects.(…) I think some may come out, but in fact, it is a government with less political strength in Congress”he concluded.
