Gustav Petro; between hope and uncertainty

Mario Abdo Benítez, President of the Republic, will travel to Colombia this weekend to participate in the inauguration of Gustavo Petro, President-elect of Colombia. In addition, the national president will hold a meeting with his Colombian counterpart on Saturday. That same day, Abdo will participate in a farewell dinner with Iván Duque, outgoing president of Colombia.

“Governing a nation is a great challenge and he wished President Petro the greatest success,” Abdo said in an interview with Colombian media.

It should be remembered that in the month of May there was a great collaboration from the Colombian country to clarify the death of prosecutor Marcelo Pecci. The investigations lasted less than a month and culminated in the capture and sentence of the moral authors of the crime to 23 years in prison.

Abdo Benítez will participate on Sunday in the inauguration acts along with other leaders such as Alberto Fernández (Argentina), Manuel López Obrador (Mexico), Gabriel Boric, (Chile), Luis Arce (Bolivia), Pedro Castillo (Peru) and Xiomara Castro ( Honduras), among others.

In this context, the president recalled the historical ties that Paraguay maintains with Colombia, which he described as a supportive country that has supported Paraguay in the most difficult moments of its history. “We feel in our homeland when we are in Colombia, very happy to be able to visit that country again,” he emphasized.

ECHEVERRI

Juan David Echeverri, a Colombian criminal engineer and lawyer, stated that in the days before Petro’s inauguration, people live in a mixture of hope and uncertainty. Because after 212 years of republican life, a popular-based government arrives for the first time, different from previous governments that obeyed the castes of this country for a lifetime. “Hopefully, it is received by more than 11 million voters, 20 million poor and 6 million in extreme poverty. That they expect social and economic reforms to be implemented and fulfilled. And with uncertainty, it is received by 10 million voters of the right-wing candidate who lost (Rodolfo Hernández). He pointed out that Petro should calm things down and transmit signs of calm, especially to the business community.

That he is looking forward to policies related to the industry, attracting investors, employment and tax reform.

What is Petro’s relationship with the military?

This is an enormous challenge, because it faces an army and a police force that were educated under the doctrine of the internal enemy, under the doctrine of national security of the 1960s, which was applied to the entire Southern Cone and to our entire country directed by the United States, then there is a tension in our country, a tension with the military. “A great process of purging officers and high-ranking officials involved in corruption awaits Petro. This has generated great tension because the commander of the military forces resigned and was an outspoken opponent of Petro. policy that in Colombia, the military forces, by constitution, are not belligerent”, he expressed.

Why did Petro win?

Petro won because the vast majority grew tired of the broken promises of all previous right-wing governments. And let’s say the cherry on the cake was the Duque government that did not contribute anything to social causes. They shattered the peace. “Let’s say that what the people say is that the great legacy of the dam was to have ended Uribeism. It is a vote of rejection of the traditional political class, of corruption and therefore the great hope that there is for the country to change”, he stated.

RAMIREZ

Luis Ramírez, a Colombian businessman, affirmed that this is a great challenge and a great expectation, since it is the first very leftist government. In addition to being the first government that is not born from traditional politics. “President Petro comes from having been a member of a terrorist group like the M-19 many years ago. This creates a lot of very positive expectations for some people and negative ones for others,” he noted.

50.4% of voters supported Petro, this data, for the analyst, means that he does not have a strong majority that supports him. “He means that he has another half of the Colombians who are not with the president. Half of the country has a lot of positive expectation and the other half is very nervous”, he commented.

Is there a fear of going back to the past?

The analyst pointed out that precisely one of the pillars proposed by Petro was to put peace at the center of politics. “For me the challenge is that he can reconcile all the interests of the country and govern for that 50% that he did not see as the best option. I do not think we will return to times of violence in the past when clearly the message installed by the message of the president-elect was to return to prioritizing peace as the axis of government”, he maintained.

How do you take the non-attendance of former Colombian presidents at the inauguration?

I think that most Colombians will not give it much importance. The former presidents already had their moment. What is sad is that precisely former presidents do not have the majesty above the State in their political and personal quarrels. Especially the presidents who are not going to attend are the center-right presidents who are in opposition to Petro. He speaks more ill of them and will not be very relevant for the Colombian population.

BAYTER

Roberto Bayter, a Colombian business administrator, pointed out that the political environment is “highly tense.” This is because it is the first time that a person with Petro’s profile has reached the presidency of the Republic. He himself was mayor of Bogotá years ago. “We have high expectations since he was one of the most critical people of past governments. That is why it is expected in a positive way, that it will definitely do well, ”he commented.

Bayter said that all the criticisms made by Petro in recent years can be addressed by him now that he was elected. “Those who elected him, voted, are waiting for the change that is offered, those who voted against him, hope that nothing that is good will definitely deteriorate and that he truly fulfills the promises of change, of living well, of complete peace, which is what all Colombians expect,” he said.

What are your financial expectations?

The analyst stated that they hope that at least the economic growth with which they deliver the country to the new government despite the global crisis, derived from the container crisis and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, will be maintained. “We hope that the entire global inflation problem does not affect us. We hope there is wisdom, rather than intelligence, from the president’s government team. Colombia could go into default assessed by Bloomberg”, he maintained.

He warned that oil and clean energy must be handled correctly. Since if the commodities cease to be exportable, he does not believe that the economic future will be positive.

What is heard on the economic agenda?

What they have been disclosing for a month and a half, they speak of an economic reform where 50 billion Colombian pesos are needed. “They pushed back Duque’s tax reform in its second year. And now that reform is what Petro proposes, for which it generates a lot of criticism. Within the scheme is the proposal on the amount of subsidies that they promise and there is nowhere to get that money. If you intend to stop the largest company in Colombia, which is Ecopetrol, in all areas of exploitation and resources, there is nowhere to come from. They want to tax wage earners 10 million pesos and that really is a very high base within the population. The middle class would become the poor class,” he commented.

He pointed out that Colombia is forgotten in terms of law and social justice. But because we are going through a post-pandemic period, actions around the economy should be prioritized, to facilitate the recovery of companies. “We have always had macroeconomic stability and very good ministers,” he said.

FACUNDO SIERRA

Facundo Sierra Ramos, Colombian ambassador to our country, pointed out that in 212 years of republican life, they never had a leftist government. “We are considered a center-right country, not only within Colombia, but also in the international community that sees the political panorama of an America that is tending to leftist positions,” he commented.

He affirmed that the discourse of inequality, gender equality, new leaderships were gaining ground throughout the Americas. “The same argument happened in Peru, Chile and they were governments elected for change. With this policy to create awareness among young people to enter the political life of the country. “Welcome the changes and actions to generate more opportunities in the country. I must say it frankly, it is a great expectation and uncertainty about the thick American agenda, ”she said.

What is the message about the non-participation of former presidents?

The ambassador maintained that former presidents have already shown indifference to government policies, there are some who are obviously already negotiating quotas, in quotes. “There are very opposite positions. The arrival of a person who has a guerrilla past and reintegration generates a lot of animosity in many. Very structural changes are coming”, he anticipated.

He explained that Petro’s message to the police is that they are not heroes but rather, providers of a service to the country and this does not generate much enthusiasm and increases the level of uncertainty.

How is the relationship between politics and the economy in Colombia?

We see a volatile dollar, on the rise, we see the stock markets falling that are very tied to WTI and we see that there is financial uncertainty about the large investors versus the large investors who want to know what the economic policy will be like. We are talking about a very ambitious tax reform.



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