Without a doubt, the opposition needs to work on many fronts to succeed in 2024, but four factors would make it more competitive.
1. The brunette division
Votes for Morena may be reduced if the selection process for their candidate is mishandled and is perceived as clearly manipulated to benefit Claudia Sheinbaum. Disappointed and upset, Ebrard and Monreal would have to decide to seek the candidacy of another party and take with them a percentage of the vote that would favor Sheinbaum.
Even if they stayed at Morena, Sheinbaum would have to offer the losers positions to compensate them and deal for months with the internal confrontations and misgivings stemming from the selection process. It is unknown how much support Ebrard and Monreal would give Sheinbaum in the election. For this reason, feeding the aspirations of Ebrard and Monreal so that the contest in Morena is more closed and more complicated to manage, it would be a valuable tactic for the opposition.
2. A good unit candidate
The opposition cannot hope to win the election based solely on the anti-López Obrador vote. Many people would not vote for a candidate like Alejandro Moreno to avoid Morena’s victory. The opposition alliance candidate must be able to (1) maintain the opposition’s voter base, (2) win over independents, and (3) attract a part of the Morena electorate. Profiles that can fulfill these three tasks well have not yet appeared.
3. Respect AMLO programs
The anti López Obrador discourse is insufficient to achieve victory. To attract more votes, the opposition candidate will have to “amloize” his message and offer to keep the programs of the López Obrador government in force to neutralize Morena’s campaign. Every vote in favor of the opposition is a vote in favor of the opposition. disappearance of social programs for older adults or scholarships for young people and the return of the privileges that the wealthy sectors of society have lost during the fourth transformation.
