Forecasts do not add up: why the dollar does not rise after the announcement of Minminas

Forecasts do not add up: why the dollar does not rise after the announcement of Minminas

Although analysts came to affirm that the announcements by the Minister of Mines, Irene Vélez, about not signing new oil or gas contracts, would impact the market and, with it, would cause a significant rise in the dollar, the currency, on the contrary, presented a fall.

(Read: The discussion on a South American currency will advance).

On Friday, January 20, one day after the minister’s remarks at the World Economic Forum, The dollar closed with an average price of $4,631.38. That is, 52.47 pesos below the TRM of the day.

The trend has not been different this week. For Tuesday, January 24, the foreign currency traded at an average price of $4,546, that is, it fell 5 pesos against the TRM of the day, which was $4,551.

According to Jeisson Balaguera, economist and CEO of Values ​​AAA, the statements by the Minister of Mines are having less impact on financial markets. “They don’t have the same effect as with the arrival of the government when there was a bit of a financial panic,” he explains.

(See: Symptoms of economic slowdown are becoming more evident).

Likewise, from the market they see it as complex to replace the income that oil contributes to the GDP in the country. “The market does not see it as something so viable in real terms“, says Balaguera.

This is linked to the fact that currently there are many active scans “then the market does not see a significant alarm within the price,” says the expert.

Along with this, the price of the currency would also be determined by some international factors. “The dollar has generally lost value against all currencies, with few exceptions (Peru). Now, Colombia has been one of the most revalued currencies, but it is also one of the currencies that had lost the most value last year. In fact, if the value of the Colombian peso is compared with that of currencies from similar countries (Mexico, Chile, Brazil and Peru), the Colombian peso has had a poor performance since the middle of last year.“, explains David Pérez, professor at the Faculty of Economics at the Universidad de los Andes.

(Read: Festival and concert ticket sales up 150% by 2023).

Balaguera y Pérez agrees that the decline in the inflation figures in the United States, and with it the possible interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, are generating relief in the markets. “They assimilate that there will be more dollars in the market and this will cause the price to drop,” says Balaguera.

On the other hand, the behavior of the economy in Europe has been a little better than expected until a few months ago, and China is already reopening to the world. This could start to raise optimism in the world economy (or stop increasing pessimism) and that leads to stop demanding the dollar, which is the safe currency.says Perez.

Finally, for Perez the financial markets no longer believe that what the minister says is going to happen“when the Minister of Finance has contradicted her every time she makes similar statements.”


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