On December 18, the internal presidential elections will be held. On the one hand, the ruling Colorado Party (ANR) has four candidates; Gregorio Aquino (Alternative Colorada Alliance), Hisachi Kawano (Honor Colorado Social Eclectic Renewal), Arnoldo Wiens (Republican Force) and Santiago Peña (Honor Colorado).
On the part of the Coalition, there are six candidates; Efraín Alegre (PLRA), Martin Burt (PLRA), Sebastián Villarejo (Patria Querida), Hugo Fleitas (PLRA), Herminio Ruiz Díaz (PLRA) and Hugo Portillo (Christian Democratic Party).
For analysts, today Santiago Peña from the ANR and Efraín Alegre from the Concertación are better positioned.
Selva Castiñeira, a political scientist, said that the polls show Santiago Peña as the winner with 45% in his favor. Unlike the candidate of “Republican Force” who manages a percentage of 6 to 8 points less difference.
“The pollsters do not take into account the third space. Since the candidacies of Euclides, Chilavert and Cubas could take between 200 thousand to 350 thousand votes. Peña could win the internal ones but I see it difficult for him to position himself in the general ones. The hard vote of the ANR is around 1.4 million. I would not give the ANR as the winner in the 2023 generals, ”he said.
With respect to the Coalition, he affirmed that there are many things that confuse a lot and give to interpret situations that are not real. “I am guided more by citizen perception. The surveys are guided by a tentative panorama. We have to see what the citizens want, who they prefer for 2023, ”she commented.
Clara Martínez, a political scientist, expressed for her part that Wiens is growing and improving her speech with much more social content. In addition, she added self-criticism to it and that can convince the electorate. Instead, she pointed out that Santiago Peña has already reached her political peak.
“I think that since he already has experience in this, he has already grown and that is as far as he will go. But Wiens, as he is a new candidate, is working very hard, with just three months of work. Trying to come back, he’s going to force you to work much harder and more strategically to make a difference,” he said.
Regarding the Concertación, he stated that according to the latest polls, Efraín Alegre is having an advantage over the rest of the opposition candidates. “He is a very well-known and influential person. It is his third presidential election. Last time he lost by only three percentage points. He now had a very good campaign, he must use the base that he already has… he is doing an intense job despite the differences with Llanismo. He is trying to position himself. To have the support of all the members of the opposition”, he concluded.
Efraín Alegre has already participated in two presidential elections. On both occasions he registered defeats against the Colorado candidate. The first was against Horacio Cartes and the second against Mario Abdo Benítez. For his part, Santiago Peña will dispute his second elections. The first was a loss in the 2017 red squads against Mario Abdo Benítez.