In the morning hours of last Friday, the United States ambassador to Paraguay, Marc Ostfield, announced that the United States accused Horacio Manuel Cartes Jara of being significantly corrupt. With this, the former head of state and his three children; Juan Pablo Cartes, Sofía Cartes and Sol Cartes will no longer be allowed to enter the United States for life.
Additional sanctions are not ruled out both for Cartes and his family and for other political actors in our country.
Mario Paz Castaing, a political scientist, expressed that the declaration of the United States ambassador has left him shocked, despite the fact that there was much speculation about the possibility that Cartes would be declared significantly corrupt.
“It has impacted me in the sense that I feel sorry for the international image. It is an international paper, because Cartes became the first former national president who is prohibited from entering American territory. It is a negative situation for the country. And it speaks very little in favor of the competent institutions and bodies to investigate the facts”, he pointed out.
INACTION
The analyst expressed that the sadness that this generates is that the punishment had to come from outside since the judicial organs of the country did not act as they should.
“They have not responded, there were cases where former presidents were declared significantly corrupt to certain politicians and after 15 days it was already the request of the Department of Justice for them. I hope that the competent bodies in the country will act. This institutional weakness is not good for the country,” he pointed out.
He urged that the investigations be carried out, and if Cartes rejects the accusations due to the lack of evidence, it is time for him to demonstrate it before the competent bodies.
“When the investigation is going to start is what we are waiting for. The Public Ministry should already be working, opening the investigations to continue avoiding embarrassments”, she concluded.
«The NRA could lose power in 2023»
How did you take the fact?
The political scientist Selva Castiñeira, said that apart from Chartism, the one that lost the most today is the National Republican Association (ANR). She stressed that the movement of the ruling party (abdismo or “Republican Force”) does not have much to celebrate today.
“The United States handles this style of information for a long time before making this type of statement because it investigates all political actors, I don’t think they don’t do it with Hugo Velázquez, even if the ambassador declares that it has absolutely no relation to political issues, to my It seems that it has a lot to do with it,” he said.
He said that the United States is a country that condemns drug trafficking and money laundering due to the lack of action by the Public Ministry of our country.
“We have a minister who does not respond to everything related to the prevailing corruption. The first serious mistake was to support the minister in the Public Ministry after several accusations of impunity and mismanagement, ”she commented.
What is going to happen now?
He argued that due to all these facts, it could happen that the government party even loses power.
“After this, the electoral context will change quite a bit. The most painful thing about this is that part of the electorate does not measure up when their eyes are clouded by fanaticism and prebendary politics, so they will still continue to vote for them, ”he said.
He commented that the only way we can have quality politicians will be the day that citizens punish acts of corruption and it is the public institutions themselves that carry out this type of action and not international organizations. For this, the electorate must vote judiciously”, he stated.
He argued that the international image that the country shows today creates instability, and a political crisis greatly affects the country’s image and even more so where an international organization intervenes.
What will happen to the candidacy of Santiago Peña?
He finally said that there is clearly a crisis situation regarding the candidacy of Santiago Peña and it is most likely that he will lose a few points in terms of voting intentions.
“He will have the arduous task of working to maintain his position. He will have to work on his candidacy so as not to close the percentage gap with this fact in relation to his opponent in the internals. Especially for the general elections in case he emerges victorious in the internal ones. This situation affects the ANR regardless of who the presidential candidate is,” he stated.
“It is the first step of others that are going to happen”
How did you take the fact?
He pointed out that it is a very important historical fact for several reasons, among others because there is no formal declaration by a very important government that has great importance in Paraguayan historical life.
“It is a statement that the ambassador made personally and it is a message that comes from the State Department. He believes that it is the first step of others that are probably going to happen. That is the first impression, beyond the effect that it generates in the whole society that refers directly to a former president, ”he explained.
What is going to happen now?
He pointed out that generally when an organized and strategic country like the United States takes a step like this, it is because other steps have been taken, they are not generally isolated steps.
“What is going to happen in Paraguay? The impeachment of the Attorney General will most likely be raised. But what gives the impression is that there is a cloak of impunity over many people. It is not an issue of the Attorney General, but there were investigations that have been hidden like the Messer case, there were people involved like the people from the National Development Bank (BNF) at the time and none of those people are charged. An almost intolerable impunity,” she commented.
What will happen to the candidacy of Santiago Peña?
Regarding the candidacy of Santiago Peña, he stated that he sees it very difficult for him to be successful in the next elections after the political coup that resulted from the United States’ declaration.
“It is a very hard blow because it is Cartes who supports that candidacy. It is not Santiago Peña even though he is the candidate, he does not support it. His candidacy is supported by Cartes and this is the person who is signing up at this time. The situation is very complex from an electoral point of view for him,” he stated.
“They will begin negotiations between Cartes and Abdo”
How did you take the fact?
He pointed out that it seems important to him that a country as important and a strategic ally as the United States is, to name a former president as significantly corrupt, that is, linked to transnational organized crime. In addition, with themes of terrorism.
“It’s something too important and we’ll see if it works to clean up public institutions in Paraguay,” he said.
What is going to happen now?
He maintained that with this statement he could greatly change the red inmates. It could give strength to Hugo Velázquez and the entourage of Mario Abdo Benítez to strengthen him in the internal Reds.
“The other thing is that it could strengthen the alternative that the Concertación may present, since we are talking about the leader of one of the main political movements of the Colorado Party. So, here you can play in two ways. In the first place, Honor Colorado will play a certain way of negotiating with Marito to prevent further investigations from advancing within Paraguay or for this to soften or cool down in Paraguay. Take it as a simple statement from the United States and that nothing happens in our country, ”he said.
He advanced that the chartism agenda will focus on closing agreements. And in those negotiations that he will do with Marito’s team, that inaction can take advantage of the Coalition to indicate that both Colorado blocs have the same corrupt and nepotistic agenda.
“At the same time it is very dangerous because a lot of money can be moved transnationally. That drug trafficking, everything that the Government of the United States is accusing. One can speak of a lot of movement of silver, of the price of the purchase of certificates, because the interests are much stronger. Cartes is now going to want to redouble his bet on having a certain political immunity so that in the internal and general elections there is a lot of vote buying and a lot of corruption, generating, in turn, political instability,” he commented.
What will happen to the candidacy of Santiago Peña?
Finally, regarding the candidacy of Santiago Peña, he expressed that he considers that he will continue his candidacy, a little weakened, but they will continue.
“They will say that it is all about political persecution. Basically from the victims, that it is an alliance of the Government with those lines and how certain legal processes take time and many public institutions are co-opted by powerful groups, they may not advance much but their discourse will be weakened and it will be difficult to convince certain groups outside of the hard vote, convince in this situation”, he concluded.
“Santiago Peña does not exist without Horacio Cartes”
How did you take the fact?
It was a political decision of the United States that has a line that has already been followed in Honduras, Guatemala. Of declaring as significantly corrupt those who understand that they are.
“It has political significance in their countries. It follows the same line as what they did with former President Orlando Hernández of Honduras, who later requested his extradition. This shows that Paraguay does not have an institutional functioning. The Paraguayan Justice has done nothing, when in all the countries of the region there are open criminal trials”, he expressed.
He pointed out that this shows how far Cartes has gone about his shady dealings.
“It is a very important political meaning because it is a candidate for president of the ANR. And he also shows that we were right to resign from the ANR because he is in the hands of pirates linked to corruption”, he stated.
What is going to happen now?
Estigarribia pointed out that now it is assumed that there will be a weakening of Cartes in his political performance and in his secretary who is an employee of the BASA bank.
“A statement like this has a lot of political implications. It is one of the most important statements of the embassy. Considering that the United States is a world leader. We have a democracy that is always protected, watched over by the North American country. So pretty strong was the statement,” he commented.
What will happen to the candidacy of Santiago Peña?
He pointed out that it remains to be seen what will happen to Peña’s presidential aspirations, considering that this statement was a very strong blow to his aspirations.
“Because Peña does not exist without Cartes. So I think it’s a blow to Cartes and his satellites who got into the Coalition. People who were in his government and appear suspiciously in the Concertación. So I think it’s a very strong blow, ”he replied.
He argued that the same thing can happen that happened with Ulises Quintana at the time, when the deputy ran for mayor last year.
“After being declared significantly corrupt, he lost the elections in Ciudad del Este against Prieto by 40 points. So that can happen with Peña and with Cartes’s candidacy for the Board and obviously with all the Colorado Honor candidates and their candidacies”, he concluded.
