The financial market reduced, for the seventh consecutive week, the inflation forecast for 2022. According to the Focus Bulletin, released today (15) by the Central Bank, 2022 should close with a rise of 7.02% in the National Consumer Price Index Broad (IPCA).
A week ago, the IPCA was projected at 7.11% for 2022; and four weeks ago, at 7.54%.
For 2023, projected inflation is 5.38%. A week ago, it was at 5.36%; and four weeks ago, at 5.20%. It also increased the forecast for 2024, from 3.3% a week ago, to 3.41%, according to the bulletin released this Monday. For 2025, the market projection remains, for 57 weeks, at 3%.
Exchange and interest
The financial market also maintained its forecasts for the exchange rate and the basic interest rate, the Selic. The expectation is that the dollar will close the year at R$ 5.20 (stable stability that lasts three weeks); and, in the case of the Selic, at 13.75% per year (projection of stability for 8 consecutive weeks).
The stability of both the exchange rate and the Selic was also recorded in the forecasts for 2023 and 2024. In the case of the dollar, at R$ 5.20 for next year, and at R$ 5.10 for 2024. is expected to close 2023 at 11% per year, and 2024, at 8% per year.
GDP
Regarding the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the sum of all the wealth produced in the country, the financial market has increased its growth forecast for 2022 and for the next two years.
This year, GDP is expected to grow 2%, compared to projections of 1.98% and 1.75%, released one and four weeks ago, respectively.
For 2023, the market expects a GDP growth of 0.41%. A week ago, the forecast was 0.40%; and four weeks ago, 0.50%. For 2024, the forecast is for an expansion of 1.8%. A week ago, the projection was 1.70%; and four weeks ago, 1.80%.
