For the thirtieth consecutive time, the official inflation estimate in the country was high, reaching 9.17% for this year and 4.55% for 2022. The projection is from the bulletin focuss, from the Central Bank (BC), released this Monday (1). The document brings together forecasts from more than 100 financial market institutions for the main economic indicators.
Not even the rise in interest was enough to hold the financial market’s estimate for the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) and, for the first time, the level is above 9%. Last week, the forecast was at 8.96%. The IPCA should not be higher than 5.25% this year, according to the inflation target set by the National Monetary Council (CMN). The center of the target is 3.75%, but the 1.5 percentage point margin up or down allows the index to vary from 2.25% to 5.25%.
Selic
In the case of the basic interest rate, the Selic, the main tool for controlling inflation, economists project it to reach 9.25% per year in 2021. For 2022, for the first time, the expectation is that the rate, which currently stands at 7.75% per year, stay above double digits and reach the 10.25% mark.
GDP
Analysts reduced expectations on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which in 2021 should be 4.94% per year. The forecast is lower than last week, at 4.97%, and lower than a month ago, when the forecast growth was 5.04%. For 2022, the projection for GDP also decreased. Specialists participating in the weekly survey of the Central Bank indicated a GDP growth of 1.20%. For 2023, the forecast remained stable, with growth of 2.00%.
