The analysts and public and private institutions that participated this month in the Survey of Expectations of the Central Bank (BCU) revised upwards again – for the third time in a row – their forecasts on inflation for 2022.
The median inflation expected by analysts is 8.5% for the end of the year, more than half a point above the March survey (7.9%). While, for the next 24 months, it stands at 6.88%, from 6.95% forecast during the March survey. For April, the expected monthly inflation is 0.72%.
In the 12 months to March, the CPI closed at 9.4% and —although a moderation is projected for the second half of the year— it will be quite far from the official goal (5.8%).
The president of the BCU, Diego Labat, stated last week that in 2022 inflation is going to be above the target range and that the uncertainty is such that it is not easy to give a number.
The head of the BCU recalled that inflation expectations are unanchored and that is why monetary policy was “tightened”. In that sense, he argued that the situation “slows down” the anti-inflationary policy, but that does not lead to “losing the north.” “Monetary policy is going to continue to do its homework,” he said.
On the other hand, yese estimates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow 3.8% this year and 2.93% nextwithout relevant changes compared to the previous query.
In relation to the exchange rate, the projected value remains at $44.5 for the end of the year, and for the horizon of four months to August, the median value is $43.55.
