The departure of Nicaragua from the Organization of American States (OAS), requested by the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, means that the country “is isolating itself from the international system”, which generates a “lack of legitimacy, because it becomes an unreliable State ”for multilateral organizations, warned the international affairs analyst and professor at the University of Costa Rica (UCR), Carlos Murillo.
This decision, in which the regime anticipated the analysis of the suspension of the OAS, which “took a long time,” sends the message that Nicaragua “may at any time make the decision to withdraw from any other international organization, including the institutions international financial institutions, ”said Murillo.
The academic in interview in the program Tonight- which is broadcast on Facebook and YouTube due to the censorship of the Ortega regime- he valued that an example of the repercussions is the decision of the majority of member countries to suspend the inauguration of the new headquarters of the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) in Managua, scheduled for December 15.
For Murillo, the exit from the OAS involves “the suspension of loans from financing and cooperation programs by financial entities such as CABEI” and “without a doubt, similar decisions will follow from the IDB, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. the fear of precisely that conduct, contrary to the international order ”.
Doubtful progress at the OAS
Regarding the decision of the members of the OAS Permanent Council who opted for “more diplomatic efforts,” which could include the creation of a high-level commission and good offices to visit the country, the analyst mentioned that this path should be exhausted “Before thinking about sanctions, be they diplomatic, political or economic.”
However, he mentioned that “time is very short” to establish that commission before Ortega and Murillo take office on January 10 because “once that transfer is made, there will be no going back.”
“Beyond what can be done in the diplomatic sphere, being at the end of the year always tends to paralyze all political and diplomatic processes (…) so the time for the Permanent Council to make decisions is too short to expect that make some progress, “he lamented.
During the virtual meeting last Monday, the Secretary General of the OAS, Luis Almagro, urged the international community to continue pressuring Ortega, so that Nicaragua “can resume the path of democracy.”
Murillo estimated that the pressure could extend beyond January 10 “from the perspective of the OAS”, however he doubts that the regime has the intention of accepting that initiative “because from the perspective of the regime, the electoral process was free, transparent attached to Nicaraguan regulations and legitimate ”.
Negotiation with the USA
The UCR professor indicated that “Daniel Ortega has made it very clear his willingness to dialogue and that he will only do so with the United States whom he has described as the owner of the circus” because he has disqualified Nicaraguan opponents.
“There is very little space for any dialogue, because the Ortega-Murillo regime is not interested in dialogue, because it considers, although it is not true that Cuba and Venezuela can give it enough oxygen to continue subsisting as an authoritarian regime and that is not true because neither Neither Cuba nor Venezuela have resources ”, he insisted.
He also stated that the Bolivarian Alliance (ALBA) project “is a reminder of when Venezuela could give hundreds of millions of dollars to the countries of the region.” “Then it would have practically only one important partner that is Russia, but that does not guarantee enough resources either,” he said.
During the meeting last Monday, in the extraordinary session, the alternate representative of Nicaragua in the OAS, Michael Campbell, assured that the decision to leave the organization is “irrevocable” and pointed to the organization as being “a builder of interference and disagreements, to the detriment of the peoples of Latin America and the Caribbean ”. The withdrawal, however, will be effective until November 2023, as the process lasts two years.
Murillo explained that during that time Nicaragua “has to comply with all the commitments corresponding to the OAS” but foresees “a complex diplomatic limbo” in which the regime will insist that it will no longer belong to the organization.
In that sense, the international analyst pointed out that “what has been largely avoided so far” may occur, which is “to move to economic sanctions against Nicaragua, not against the regime and its members, including the presidential family, but against Nicaragua. ”.
This could lead to “suspension of international credits that have already been approved for development projects or the exclusion of some international cooperation schemes” for which the Ortega-Murillo regime may be “forced to suspend some social assistance programs”, which they benefit a part of the Nicaraguan population.