The Economic Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-Br) rose 0.5 point from May to June this year, reaching 116.4 points, as reported today (30) by Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). This Indicator is composed of two components: the IIE-Br Mídia, based on information collected from the main newspapers in the country; and the IIE-Br Expectation, obtained from the expectations of the financial market about macroeconomic variables, such as the exchange rate, the Selic rate and the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA).
According to Anna Carolina Gouveia, economist at the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre) at FGV, the result of the Economic Uncertainty Indicator in June was impacted by the Media component. “The Uncertainty indicator rises in June, remaining at a moderately high level, 1.4 points above the high average of 115 points observed between July 2015 and February 2020, the last month before the impact of the covid-19 pandemic. Contributing to the result were the worsening of the fiscal scenario, which was once again highlighted in the economy, the persistent and widespread inflation in Brazil and in the world, the uncertainties regarding world growth and the proximity of the presidential elections”.
Throughout June, the IIE-Br Mídia even decelerated, reflecting the release of better-than-expected economic activity results. Anna Carolina analyzed, however, that the maintenance of inflation and the worsening of fiscal conditions raised doubts about the continuity of positive results for the coming months. “Given the challenging scenario for the domestic and international conjuncture, the indicator should continue to fluctuate at a high level in the coming months”, evaluated the economist at Ibre/FGV.
