ECLAC’s expectations for the region, as a whole, worsened, falling from the estimated 2.1% to 1.8%. The causes are closely related to the consequences of the war between Russia and Ukraine
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) published a update your estimates for the region’s economy after evaluating the first four months of the year, in which Venezuela improved the expectations that were planned for early 2022.
Specifically, the international organization believes, as a result of the current economic outlook, that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Venezuela will grow 5% by the end of the year.
This implies a substantial improvement compared to previous expectations, because although an increase in GDP was expected for the first time since 2013, this rebound was projected at just a tiny 1%.
However, this 5% represents a tiny amount of increase when compared to the massive contraction suffered in recent years, especially in 2020, when the pandemic and the Chavista administration led to a drop of around 30%.
According to ECLAC, the Venezuelan economy would not have grown during 2021. On the contrary, they affirmed that the GDP fell again that year, with 4% to add to the 8 years of continuous contraction.
Therefore, according to the data handled by ECLAC, 2022 would finally be a year of growth, for the first time in almost a decade, since 2013 was the last time an improvement in the national GDP was estimated.
These data contrast with the numbers handled by Chavismo, which argued growth during 2021, despite the fact that they only showed figures for the last quarter of the year, according to which economic activity would have grown by around 7%.
*Also read: The Venezuela that “was not fixed”: The collapse of the national industry
For its part, the Venezuelan Finance Observatory (OVF), which has no relationship with Chavismo, also advocated an increase in the economy of around 6.8% by the end of the year.
The growth projected by ECLAC has even more weight when considering that forecasts for the region worsened. A worse performance is expected from other countries, while for Venezuela expectations improved.
In fact, at a percentage level, Venezuela is one of the economies that will grow the most, although the small size it currently maintains has a lot to do with it. ECLAC affirms that the economies with the greatest expansion will be Panama (6.3%), the Dominican Republic (5.3%), Venezuela (5%), Colombia (4.8%), Guatemala (4.2%), Honduras (4.1%) Uruguay (3.9%), Costa Rica (3.7%) and Bolivia (3.5%).
Cuba (3.4%), El Salvador (3%), Argentina (3%), Ecuador (2.7%), Peru (2.5%), Nicaragua (2.5%), Mexico (1.7%) and Chile (1.5%), while the countries that will grow the least will be Paraguay (0.7%), Haiti (0.6%) and Brazil (0.4%).
On the other hand, expectations for the region as a whole worsened, falling from the estimated 2.1% to 1.8%. The causes are closely related to the consequences of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
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